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The Dodgers have 36 games remaining; 21 of them are at home and 27 of them are against teams with losing records. That’s right: Los Angeles has only nine games remaining against winning teams all season — and only three road games against a winning team (San Francisco, September 12-14).
By Jon Weisman
The most challenging part of the Dodger season is over — on paper.
In reality, every day is its own special challenge.
Los Angeles came out of the All-Star Break having to play 29 games in 31 days, 18 of them on the road, 26 of them against winning teams. That’s a hell of a tough run, and despite the weekend sweep by Milwaukee, the team went 16-13 (.551), an 89-win pace over a 162-game season against some of the best baseball had to offer.
At least in the short term, the Dodgers’ performance did little to support the idea home games are more valuable than road games (Los Angeles is a .500 team at home but has baseball’s best road record, 40-26, and went 11-7 on the road against the above-.500 opponents), or that strength of schedule affects performance.
Against the team that now has the best record in baseball, the Angels, the Dodgers won three out of four. Los Angeles performed its worst against teams that are now No. 1 in the National League (the Brewers) and No. 14 (the Cubs, who beat the Dodgers two out of three.)
The Cubs are 16 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central, which is a lot, but not as significant in measuring the abilities of the two teams as you’d immediately think. It’s less than one win per week — which means six out of every seven days, Chicago and Milwaukee are even. Similarly, Colorado, which is 20 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West — the biggest gap in the NL — has been, on average, as good as the Dodgers every day of the week but one.
It’s a corollary of the oft-quoted philosophy attributed to Tommy Lasorda: “No matter how good you are, you’re going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you’re going to win one-third of your games. It’s the other third that makes the difference.”
The overdogs
In theory, the Dodgers should have a belly full of victories going forward. They have 36 games remaining; 21 of them are at home and 27 of them are against teams with losing records. That’s right: Los Angeles has only nine games remaining against winning teams all season — and only three road games against a winning team (San Francisco, September 12-14).
And, though more cynical observers might not believe it, the Dodgers have fattened up on weaker teams in 2014, going 40-23 (.635).
Given that schedule, how many of those remaining 36 games do you think the Dodgers will be favored to win? Twenty? Thirty? Or put it this way: How many games would it frustrate fans to lose?
Sunday, I asked Don Mattingly, is there really that much difference between the best teams in baseball and the worst?
“It’s usually pitching, and the teams that aren’t able to keep up are the teams that don’t have that depth and don’t have the pitching day-in, day-out, day-in, day out,” Mattingly said.
“I don’t think there’s that much difference — it’s that guy on the mound that changes it. If Houston or the Cubs find a guy who can really pitch and he’s on that day, you’re gonna have trouble scoring runs. So if your guy doesn’t throw zeroes, their guys get a few hits, hit the ball out of the ballpark or the ball bounces funny, next thing you’re down three runs and you have to start chipping off the board. It is baseball, it’s hard to kind of figure out what’s going to happen over the long haul.”
Obstacles outside and in
Mattingly noted that San Diego, whom the Dodgers play six times in 14 remaining days this month beginning Tuesday, is among the tops in baseball in pitching. The Padres have an adjusted ERA of 111, second in the NL. Though they are 58-65, they have gone 17-10 (.630) since July 19.
“We’ve seen what’s going on with them,” Mattingly continued. “They’re climbing. They’re in the wild-card (race) at this point, the way they look at it, I’m sure.”
For the Dodgers, far more important than their schedule going forward tending to their own house. Of their seven primary starting pitchers entering 2014 (including Chad Billingsley), four are on the disabled list. A fifth, Dan Haren, has been inconsistent, and the two stalwarts, Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, suffered back-to-back losses for the first time this year. The left side of the starting infield is also sidelined.
Every game is a challenge, every game has a thin margin for error. Expecting to dominate, simply because you have a better record than your opponent, is probably unrealistic. That’s the bad news. The good news is that the Dodgers remain better equipped than most to take on those challenges — while taking incremental advantage of that easier schedule down the stretch — to reach that winner-take-all tournament in October.
artieboy
If the difference between the cubs and the brewers is one game a week (same as us vs the Rockies) then it’s hard to call it an “easier schedule down the stretch”, right? It sounds like your saying the upcoming strength of schedule will help our performance.
Never mind! I’m just frustrated. We played great at SF and Milwaukee just whipped our butts. What an exciting player that kid Gomez.
Bill Staff
I think every game is a must win for the Dodgers, or I think that should be in the mindset of each player and manager. The Basics of baseball, working at getting least one run per inning. Defensively its on the pitcher to put the ball in the pocket and be creative. But you can have all that power in the pitching but doesn’t do any good if the bats go limp. Dodger Fan Since 1969 and all be a fan no matter what the outcome might be. For the younger players this is the time you reach down and with all your might give it your all, even in pain, work through it, because the rewards in the end will be worth it, ” World Series 2014 ” LIVE.BREATHE.BLUE.
Michael Green
First, if you look at the pitching lines for The Clayton of Kershaw and for The Almost Human Greinke, both of them pitched well enough to win for a team that could score runs. As for winning every day, Chuck Tanner, that cockeyed optimist, once said that every team in baseball wins 1/3 of its games and loses 1/3 of its games, and the other 1/3 decide everything. Well, there’s another way to look at it. Reggie Jackson once asked Earl Weaver, whom he played for briefly, why he couldn’t always be “Mr. October,” and Weaver said that in life as in baseball, no one can sustain that level on a permanent basis. The Dodgers have to play well enough to win enough games to make the playoffs. The rest will follow–literally and figuratively. But we can’t afford to hope for our daily victory and to seek it at all costs.
oldbrooklynfan
Most people know me as leaning toward the pessimistic side. They’re right and I think it started right after Bobby Thomson’s infamous “shot heard around the world”. I’ll always believe any team can beat any other team in the major leagues at any time. Just because the Dodgers face teams with losing records, especially at this time of year, doesn’t mean the Dodgers will also beat these teams. Many times a team suddenly gets hot while the Dodgers are not (like now). The Padres and even the Mets (there no pushovers either), can’t be pushed aside as easy victims.
That said, I still think the Dodgers will get back to the postseason.
Jon Weisman
Having enjoyed your comments all year, I don’t find you a pessimist. Just very thoughtful :)
oldbrooklynfan
Thank You, that’s what I try to tell people.