By Jon Weisman
Ten games to go. Ten games to find starting pitchers for.
That’s the puzzle I imagine most Dodger fans are trying to solve after Carlos Frias managed the near unthinkable – a game score of 0 – in today’s 16-2 loss at Colorado.
In allowing eight runs on 10 hits in two-thirds of an inning, Frias produced the lowest game score by a Dodger starting pitcher in 28 years, since Jerry Reuss allowed nine earned runs and 15 baserunners in four innings against the Phillies. Frias also recorded the fewest outs by any Major League starting pitcher who allowed at least 10 hits since at least 1901.
And Frias might have been lucky to get those two outs. One was an inexplicable caught stealing on a 2-0 pitch after the first five Rockies had combined for three singles, a double and a home run, the other an equally inexplicable squeeze bunt attempt when the team was 7 for 7 off Frias.
Asked to mop up, Kevin Correia fared well only by comparison, allowing five earned runs on seven hits and a walk in three innings without a strikeout.
The Dodgers have allowed at least 10 runs in three of their past six games, a disturbing ratio to be sure, though I would argue that in defeat, it doesn’t matter whether you lose by one run or 10.
Milwaukee lost its game to St. Louis tonight, lowering the Dodgers’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot to four. But San Francisco cut the Dodgers’ National League West lead to two games by scoring two in the ninth to defeat Arizona, and with the divisional magic number at 9, it’s natural to wonder how the Dodgers will play out the final 10 games of the season.
Here’s the schedule, with scheduled pitchers:
- Thursday at Chicago: Zack Greinke
- Friday at Chicago: Clayton Kershaw
- Saturday at Chicago: Roberto Hernandez
- Sunday at Chicago: Dan Haren or TBD
- Monday vs. San Francisco: Dan Haren or TBD
- Tuesday vs. San Francisco: Zack Greinke
- Wednesday vs. San Francisco: Clayton Kershaw
- September 25: off
- September 26 vs. Colorado: Roberto Hernandez
- September 27 vs. Colorado: Dan Haren
- September 28 vs. Colorado: Zack Greinke
Working backward, I’ll note something about the final series against the Rockies, though I hesitate to mention it because it’s so far-fetched. If, somehow, the Dodgers still needed victories just to clinch a wild-card spot, some might wonder whether they would leave Kershaw on the sidelines. Thanks to the off day on the 25th, they could move Haren up to pitch Friday on four days’ rest, then use Greinke and Kershaw on three days’ rest. At the same time, it would raise the question of who would pitch in the wild-card game on October 1. Fortunately, it’s extremely unlikely to come up.
Still, questions remain. Hernandez has lasted 11 innings total in his three September starts with a 7.36 ERA. Correia has a 9.17 ERA over the past month. And Frias just pulled what people in the future may call “a Frias.” What will the Dodgers do?
Watching what the Angels have done over the past month with their own starting-rotation holes has to be an influence. They have taken advantage of the expanded September rosters to turn a game in their rotation over to their bullpen. It has mostly worked well, with the exception of Tuesday’s 13-2 loss to the Mariners.
But think about it: With 11 short relievers (Pedro Baez, Daniel Coulombe, Scott Elbert, Yimi Garcia, J.P. Howell, Kenley Jansen, Brandon League, Chris Perez, Paco Rodriguez, Brian Wilson and Jamey Wright), the Dodgers could use them each for an inning or even less in order to get maximum effectiveness. They could start one of them, or they could just have a quick hook ready behind their chosen starting pitcher (I’d put my money on Frias, who has had the most promising non-Coors Field month of September).
The Dodgers are in a bit of a barrel roll right now. But the Giants don’t have it easy. In their next game on Friday, they start the slumping Tim Hudson against San Diego’s Odrisamer Despaigne. On Saturday, the Giants have to face Andrew Cashner and his 2.20 ERA.
And the Dodgers are scheduled to face the following pitchers in Chicago: Tsuyoshi Wada (3.34 ERA), Edwin Jackson (6.09 ERA), Felix Doubront (5.00 ERA) and Jacob Turner (6.20 ERA).
So don’t panic.
winnipegdave
Feels like it is never easy. I recall sweating through the last week of 2009. That team had a great record but stumbled down the stretch. They lost to the then lowly Pirates 6-5 after taking a 5-2 lead into the bottom of the ninth. No worries – they only needed one more win to clinch and they played the Pirates the next day. They lost 11-1.
Next was San Diego, where they lost 2 more to the not so good Padres. They lost their 5 straight game to the hard charging Rockies , who at that point was only one game behind and closing fast.
It wasn’t until the 7th inning of the second last game of the season that the Dodgers scored 5 times and closed out clinching the division with the 5-0 win. But the champaign had been on ice and travelled with the Dodgers since Pittsburgh.
Anyway, here’s hoping they can win 2 or 3 in Chicago to finish up this road trip at 5-5 or 6-4. It would be sad to see them with their first losing road trip of the season come on their last trip.
artieboy
I believe the deciding game was a fantastic performance by kid K with prose by Vinny. Great game :)
James
As Hershiser said on the broadcast last night, it’s a little grim beyond Kershaw and Greinke at this point. “Spahn and Sain and pray for rain”.
artieboy
Your words the other day were “enjoy the pennant chase”….now they are “don’t panic”. Interesting. My question: when the Angeles handed an entire game to the bullpen, how many games were they in front? Was it an ample cushion or did they do it with a 2 game lead?
Jon Weisman
I see “enjoy the pennant chase” and “don’t panic” as complementary, not contradictory, so I’m not sure why that’s so interesting. I don’t like to repeat myself, so I used different words. And I did see a lot of panic out on Twitter and Facebook yesterday, as I did after Friday’s loss to the Giants.
On August 24, the first turn that Garrett Richards missed, the Angels started Wade LeBlanc with a one-game lead in the NL West. He did very poorly.
On the next turn, August 30, the Angels went to a bullpen game with a three-game lead in the AL West, and won that game.
But it’s not really relevant what the standings are. What’s relevant is what your best chance of winning the game is.
Most would say the Angels’ bullpen (after a revamp) is better than the Dodgers’ bullpen, so it’s less attractive for the Dodgers. But I also think the Dodgers are making more and better use of fresher arms lately.
artieboy
I see those two statements as the second building on the first. I agree enjoy the ride bumps and all.
I think a 2 game lead matters much more on September 18 than it does at the end of August. And if a bullpen game at this point in the season gives us a better chance of winning then is it a time to panic? Probably not but here comes another bump.
I love baseball :)
artieboy
And your question who would pitch the wild card….in other words who is this year’s Dave Goltz?
Vin Smith
…In situations like this, I refuse to think of yesteryear. Because when I do, I remember 1962.
oldbrooklynfan
I paid no attention to the score, in yesterday’s game, the only thing that mattered was we lost. If it was a Kershaw or a Greinke game it would’ve hurt a lot more We just have to put it behind us and hope we do better against the Cubs..