By Jon Weisman
A postscript to Thursday’s postgame post on the Dodgers starting pitching …
In both the 2013 National League Division Series and the National League Championship Series, the Dodgers only needed to win the games started by Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke to advance to the next round. It happened in the NLDS; it didn’t in the NLCS.
It’s nearly an identical story for this year’s final 10 games to clinch the NL West title.
Kershaw and Greinke each have two remaining scheduled starts, including one apiece against the Giants. If the Dodgers win those games, that alone would trim the magic number for clinching the division all the way from nine to three.
That means that in the Dodgers’ other six games, they would only need to go 3-3 to win the NL West, even if the Giants went 8-0 in the games they don’t face Kershaw and Greinke.
Consequently, every time the Giants lost, the pressure on the Dodgers would lessen. And as rough as the Dodgers’ No. 3-5 starters had it in Colorado this week, it’s a bit extreme to expect the Dodgers will get zero wins in their remaining six games.
Now obviously, if Greinke and Kershaw falter, or if the Dodger offense doesn’t support them, the Dodgers are in trouble – just like they were in last year’s NLCS. But that’s always been true. The team’s strength all year has been the front of the rotation (a rotation that Hyun-Jin Ryu should rejoin in the playoffs) and an offense that ranks first in the NL in wins above replacement.
It’s no different than saying that if Madison Bumgarner and Yusmeiro Petit falter or if the Giants offense doesn’t support them, the Giants are in trouble.
It’s no different than saying that if Team X’s best players don’t perform, Team X is in trouble.
But just think of it this way: If Greinke and Kershaw win their remaining starts and the Giants don’t play .750 ball in their other eight games, the NL West is over.
Don Bright
I figure they’ll do no worse than split against the Cubs, so that reduces the MN to 7 no matter what else happens. Then 2 out of 3 against the Giants looks good, MN at 3, just like Jon is mentioning. Have to think Haren in his two starts (against Rockies for sure, and I’m thinking they should have him start Monday against Giants instead of Sunday against Cubs) the Dodgers win at least one of those (if it’s against Giants even better), so that’s 1 or 2 for MN, and just need to get those numbers from either a Giant loss in their 7 games not against Dodgers, or a bullpen win from Dodgers.
Confusing, but simple, LOL.
oldbrooklynfan
One minute every thing looks fine and the next minute……Right now I think any bad outing by Greinke and or Kershaw could be very devastating. But of course that’s coming from me a negative thinker. I always see the dark side but I’ve also learned that these games are very unpredictable. So all hope is not lost..
utazdevl
It is not the 6 magic number games Greinke and Kershaw are pitching in that are the issue or in doubt, it is the 6 other games to be started by Haren, Hernandez and lord-knows-who that are the issue. Saying the team needs to go 3-3 in those games actually makes it sound far worse, as in the last month, starters not named Kershaw, Greinke or Ryu are 4-7 (1-7 if you remove Haren) and the team is 7-9 in those games.
Furthermore, you have to consider that one of Grienke’s final 2 starts is against Madison Bumgarner, so that game is anything but a lock. Makes you think maybe Greinke should bumped back in the rotation so that he gets that first start against the Rockies in the last series of the season rather than risk giving him a start he might not win against the Giants.
Jon Weisman
Nothing’s a lock at all. The 2013 NLCS is a recent example. But that 3-3 mark is necessary only if the Giants were to go 8-0 in the non-Kershaw/Greinke games. That’s not likely either.
Don Bright
That’s not smart to push back Greinke just because Bumgarner is pitching. Now if it were to push him back to pitch against him instead of Hernandez or whoever, ou would have a better argument.
A move you are saying would be management telling the players we don;t think you can win this one no matter who’s pitching. Whereas they are talking about doing a BP game against the Cubs, as a statement is, we can win that game no matter who we pitch.
oldbrooklynfan
I have a tendency to agree with utazdevl, but of course it may be my tendency to think negatively. I’ve been thinking like that for years, like, it would be better for your ace to pitch in a game he’s more sure of winning. Don Bright thinks more on the positive side.
Don Bright
I get that thinking from a fans standpoint. But if management thought this way, again, you’re sending a bad message to your team. This is why I also hate it when managers rest more than 2 regulars in a game. I know everyone needs a break here and there, but be smart enough to stagger them, otherwise your message to team seems to be “we can lose this one”.
Michael G. Jara
Worst case scenario Dodgers get wild card. Kersahw pitches against pirates and wins then we play Nationals in NLDS. Giants Beat Cardinals, then Dodgers and Giants play for NLCS.
artieboy
That frustrating loss vs Washington! I know there are others but that one sticks in my mind…if only!
Don Bright
Yes, if they tie the Nats for same record and lose out on playing the WC team because of it will be a big stab in the back