By Jon Weisman
Here are the earned runs by innings against Clayton Kershaw over his past six starts:
000 100 xxx (six innings on April 17 vs. Colorado, left for pinch-hitter)
002 000 xxx (six innings on April 22 at San Francisco, left for pinch-hitter)
100 100 0xx (seven innings on April 28 vs. San Francisco, left for pinch-hitter)
000 001 03x (7 1/3 innings on May 4 at Milwaukee)
000 500 xxx (5 2/3 innings on May 10 at Colorado)
000 000 3xx (6 2/3 innings on May 15 vs. Colorado)
In the past 40 innings that he has taken the mound, Kershaw has allowed earned runs in eight of them.
Kershaw CCXVIII: The Kershow with David Letterman
Joc Pederson, CF
Kiké Hernandez, SS
Howie Kendrick, 2B
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Justin Turner, 3B
Scott Van Slyke, RF
Alex Guerrero, LF
A.J. Ellis, C
Clayton Kershaw, P
For a 26-inning stretch from April 17 through the seventh inning May 4 in Milwaukee, Kershaw had a 2.08 ERA with two walks against 37 strikeouts, and the only thing that could stop him was the Dodgers’ need for a pinch-hitter. And all people did was complain about how ineffective he was.
Since then, he has had three rough innings out of 12 — not his finest cumulative hour. Several analysts online have written “what’s wrong with Kershaw” pieces, and what it seems to come to down to is pitch selection, a slightly less effective slider and — particularly in that lone Coors Field inning, which accounts for 31 percent of the runs Kershaw has allowed over his past 38 2/3 innings — some bleeding rotten fortune.
Here are two things that stick out to me:
- Opponents have swung at the first pitch in 39 percent of their plate appearances against Kershaw this year, and are hitting .308/.341/.564/.906. Last year, they swung at the first pitch 41 percent of the time, but hit .199/.204/.321/.525.
- With runners in scoring position, opponents are hitting .347/.396/.469/.866 with a .485 batting average on balls in play. Last year, they hit .190/.233/.355/.588 in RISP situations with a .276 BABIP.
The first problem is certainly fixable; the second might fix itself.
One thing I suspected Kershaw might be having trouble with didn’t turn out to be true. Of his 14 walks (that’s all) in eight starts this year, half have come with the bases empty — but that’s actually a far better percentage than last year, when 22 of his 31 walks came with the bases empty. And yet hitters are only OPSing .654 against him with nobody on. Since April 17, only one player (D.J. LeMahieu) has scored off Kershaw after drawing a bases-empty walk. So the start of innings hasn’t been the problem.
The upshot of all remains that for all that Kershaw might be doing wrong, he is doing so much that is right. Perhaps most importantly, based on his velocity, there is no indication that there’s anything physically amiss. This is still a pitcher who leads Major League Baseball in xFIP (2.15).
Our concerns about Kershaw probably say more about us than they do about him. No one’s been unhappier about his performance than Kershaw himself, but he has managed to do what should have been unthinkable — become an underrated pitcher.
Robert J. Carmack
#1- I still not convinced Kershaw is NOT jinxed by the big contract and hype as BEST pitcher in baseball he must maintain always when in fact he’s only 3 rd best this year so far..Greinke’s Cy Young start is having an impact on K. #2 Problem What happened to that great strikeout pitch curve ball he use throw,?? only throws a 88 mph slider and 94mph fastball, too predictable on pitch selection, #3- he needs another pitch to throw them off more, he’s scouted to the hilt, he is tipping his own pitches.
Jon Weisman
The idea of a jinx caused by his contract, which he signed before winning the MVP award, is one of the more bizarre comments I’ve seen, as is the completely unsupported notion that Greinke — who has been great for all three seasons as a Dodger — is suddenly somehow making Kershaw worse.
Also, according to Fangraphs, Kershaw’s curveball use is up from 14% in 2014 to 16% in 2015.
Douglas Bassett
He’s a new daddy adapting to his new role in life… he’ll be fine! I know he doesn’t use that as an excuse but Kershaw is the last person i’m worried about on that team. We need to get a quality #3 guy for this team.
jpavko
That Coors field outing was cold, rainy and at 5000+ feet in altitude for crying out loud. I want to see someone ask what’s wrong with Kershaw after he kicks San FRancisco’s behind later today!
James Brown (@herondo)
Oops.
artieboy
Vinny said Clayton is getting pushed around. He even said he gets into trouble somewhere between pitch 40 and 70. He brought this up during the last home stand.
Jon Weisman
Through pitch 90 today, Kershaw had allowed one run on seven baserunners with seven strikeouts in seven innings. He objectively pitched better than Bumgarner today.
lastnamekim
I”m not worried about him at all. He’s the best pitcher and will continue to be. This season is only like 35-40 games in?!
Joyce Green
I think Kershaw is struggling on an unconscious level that line drive he took in the face. He probably isn’t aware of it. but, I would bet he threw a slider when he got nailed. remember he stayed in the game but he had to have some dental work done because of the line drive. I believe that is what’s behind his trouble early this season.