NL playoff picture at start of summer

By Jon Weisman

Two years ago this morning, the last-place Dodgers were 30-42 and 9 1/2 games out of first place in the National League West. That night, the Dodgers did something they would do 42 times in their next 50 games: win.

It was a summer that taught us all how quickly fortunes can change in this game, a lesson many forgot last year, when the Dodgers found themselves back in a 9 1/2-game hole. On June 22, 2014, the Dodgers were already in the process of coming back, but they were still 4 1/2 games out of the division lead.

So like ’em or not, this year’s Dodgers are ahead of the game. On the first Monday of summer, Los Angeles begins play 39-31, with a 1 1/2-game lead in the NL West. So the question isn’t whether they can come back, but whether they can stay ahead.

Fresh off protecting a half-game lead over the Giants on Sunday, the Dodgers now play Chicago, over whom they have … a half-game lead. If you’re getting the sense that the race for the five NL playoff spots is a tight one right now, you’re right.

1) 45-24 .652 St. Louis
2) 39-31 .557 Los Angeles
3) 37-33 .529 Washington
4) 39-30 .565 Pittsburgh
5) 37-30 .552 Chicago
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6) 38-33 .535 San Francisco
7) 36-35 .507 New York
8) 35-35 .500 Atlanta
9) 34-35 .493 Arizona
10) 34-38 .472 San Diego
11) 32-36 .471 Cincinnati

Thanks in part to recent upswings by Atlanta and Arizona, there are 11 teams that could be in playoff position with a good week.  So the Dodgers have to stay on their toes.

In Fangraphs’ current projections for the remainder of the season, the top NL teams are the Cardinals, Dodgers, Pirates, Nationals and Cubs, with the Giants and Mets the only other teams expected to finish about .500. Baseball Prospectus currently gives the Dodgers an 83.8 percent chance of making the playoffs, with a 16.3 percent chance (tops in baseball) of winning the World Series.