Door opens for Clayton Kershaw’s fourth Cy Young

By Jon Weisman

One of the amusing parts of the hysteric reaction many had to Clayton Kershaw’s early-season struggles — such as they were — was sitting back and going, “Everyone’s asking ‘What’s wrong with Kershaw?’ Watch him win another Cy Young Award.”

Well …

Zack Greinke, for all his ongoing greatness, allowed six runs Thursday. Max Scherzer has a 3.86 ERA in his past six starts. And so we have this:

Kershaw wouldn’t win the award if there was a vote today, but thanks to a 37-inning scoreless streak (detailed here) and a 1.10 ERA in his past 12 starts, he has closed the gap considerably. You could say he’s No. 3 with a bullet.

Fielding-independent pitching is the key here. No, it’s not that so many voters value FIP or xFIP over more conventional stats. But by leading the National League in those two categories — by significant margins — Kershaw shows that he’s the most likely of the Cy Young contenders to finish the season strong. Just as his league-leading xFIP of 2.15 on May 21 — when his ERA was 4.32 — showed that Kershaw was actually underrated (yep, I wrote that) and not worth all the panic.

Then there’s Kershaw’s history. From 2011-14, Kershaw’s ERA after the All-Star break was 1.70. His worst post-All-Star ERA in that time was 2.10 in 2012.

In other words, between bad luck and Kershaw’s proven level of dedication and determination, it would have been more surprising if Kershaw hadn’t launched himself into Cy Young contention. Instead, a fourth award is within reach — a milestone achieved only by Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton and Greg Maddux.

Kershaw probably won’t win the award if he doesn’t capture what would be a fifth-straight ERA title. Right now, the award is still Greinke’s — especially if the Dodger righty keeps that ERA below 2.00. With his league-leading Wins Above Replacement, Scherzer is surely in the running as well.

And there are other threats.  There’s Jacob deGrom and his 2.09 ERA pitching the Mets to a surprising NL East lead (remember, the only time Kershaw has lost a Cy Young since 2011 was to a Met, R.A. Dickey). Gerrit Cole — tonight’s opponent for Kershaw and the Dodgers in a sterling matchup at Pittsburgh — also has a lower ERA than Kershaw’s and a chance at a 20-win season for those who still care. Jake Arrietta of the Cubs is sort of a blend of the deGrom and Cole candidacies. Arrietta is nearly as hot as Kershaw right now, with a 1.37 ERA in his past nine starts.

Who do you think will win?