An offseason accounting

Juan Ocampo/Los Angeles Dodgers

By Jon Weisman

Whenever it appeared the sky was falling on the Dodgers during the 11 years that I wrote Dodger Thoughts, it was sort of my niche to write posts explaining why the sky really might not be falling.

These posts, like my attempts to convince my youngest son that an earlier bedtime would actually make him less tired in the morning, were not entirely successful.

Some readers flat out disagreed with me. Others sniped that I was no better than an organization apologist. For the most part, though, people understood that I was an outsider, invested in the team, but coming from a place of independence and sincerity.

Usually, I had enough evidence on my side that it was no trouble making an argument that the glass at Dodger Stadium was more than half full. Plus, there was consistency to my point of view, which in many ways boiled down to “Can we at least play the games before jumping overboard?”

Since joining the Dodgers two years ago to blog here at Dodger Insider, it has definitely been a bigger challenge to write “keep calm” posts without seeming like a shill. For those who know me, my reputation buys me some credibility, but for those who don’t, it’s easy to be branded and dismissed as a spin artist. This might shock you, but it turns out my words don’t carry the same weight as Vin Scully’s.

It’s not always a problem. For example, when some were convinced in September that the Dodgers would blow the National League West — a division they ultimately won by eight games — it was pretty simple to point out how unlikely that was. Hysteria and paranoia are balloons easily popped.

But sometimes, I don’t even try. When Arizona snagged Zack Greinke 10 days ago (in a move that came with all the spontaneity of ordering eggs with a side of right-handed pitcher for breakfast, based on Ken Rosenthal’s story for Fox Sports), it was not the end of the world — and I say that as someone who adores Greinke, spent years religiously tallying his every success as a Dodger and half-believes he could pitch until he’s 60.

But in the face of all the disappointment, it seemed pretty pointless for me to make the argument that a) there were other ways to allocate those resources, and b) there’s something to be said for not taking the risks involved with paying a record annual salary for six years.

My platform is the Dodgers’ platform, and I don’t think people really wanted to hear that from the Dodgers’ platform on that day.

Juan Ocampo/Los Angeles Dodgers

In the time that has passed, the Dodgers haven’t announced a major addition, while the Diamondbacks have traded for Shelby Miller (in exchange for a huge outlay), and San Francisco has added Jeff Samardzija and today, Johnny Cueto. For that matter, neither team might be as impressive as the Cubs, who at last count are bringing in talent including Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist.

The Giants’ signing Cueto, who in baseball’s collective conversation appears to be the last big-name free agent pitcher remaining, seems to have broken what was left of the spirit of many Dodger fans.

So now what?

I have spent a lot of time thinking about what to say to those who insist that the Dodgers are winging it without a plan, or that the team with the highest payroll in baseball is afraid to spend money, or that (as preposterous as it sounds) the front office simply doesn’t care about winning.

In no way do I think 2016 is over for the Dodgers. But how do I convince you I’m not just saying that — much less that I’m not being paid to say that?

My best instinct is to start by listing several things that are true, regardless of who is paying my salary.

• The 2016 pennant race ends 9 1/2 months from now. The July 31 non-waiver trading deadline is 7 1/2 months from now. Opening Day is 3 1/2 months from now. MLB rosters are a flat circle.
• The Giants and Diamondbacks finished a collective 21 games behind the Dodgers in 2015. While they have improved their teams, they had a lot of work to do — and to some extent, still do.
• While the Dodgers are vulnerable to injuries, their rivals are not immune.
• By some accounts and perhaps a consensus, the Dodgers have the best farm system in the National League. While “prospects” can be a dirty word for those who think the Dodgers are hoarding them at the expense of winning a title, they do equip the team to have better reinforcements than most over the long, 162-game season.
• After losing by one run in a deciding Game 5 of the National League Division Series to the eventual league champs, the Dodgers have several players capable of improvement in 2016, whether it’s a more experienced Kiké Hernandez or Joc Pederson, or a healthier Yasmani Grandal or Yasiel Puig.
• To this day, no NL contender has a closer like Kenley Jansen, and nobody has a pitcher like Clayton Kershaw.

Does this make the Dodgers champions? No, but it should be enough to stop digging the grave of the 2016 Dodgers before 2016 begins.

Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers

In the interest of credibility, however, let me also point out that there are reasons to be worried. Of course there are. This game comes with no guarantees, and notching three division titles on your punchcard doesn’t automatically entitle you to a free fourth. One day, like it or not, the Dodgers will have a disappointing year. Why not next year?

If you wanted to, you could find a reason for any and every Dodger player to have a down season. Corey Seager has a developmental setback. Adrian Gonzalez will turn 34. Justin Turner is coming off knee surgery. El Nino isn’t merely a weather phenomenon, it’s a sign of a Southern California apocalypse. And so on.

Despair over the past and concern over the future go easily into a blender, pouring out into a tall glass of ice cold negativity.

As the new year approaches, many fans — many diehard fans — have already pegged the Dodgers as a third-place team on paper. One thing I noticed today is that after opening the 2016 season at San Diego, the Dodgers play their next nine games against San Francisco and Arizona. My guess is that if the Dodgers don’t start the year better than 6-6, public opinion will be a tire fire.

And yet, there will still be 150 games left in the season.

I understand the scenarios. Everyone understands the scenarios. This is why you play the games. Because titles aren’t awarded to scenarios.

That’s not corporate spin. That’s not apologizing for, to date, a quiet offseason. That’s reality.

Take everything I wrote for what you will. I’m not under any illusion that my voice resonates with the masses. But for more than 40 years, I have lived and died with this team. And I have approached my fandom in a certain way, that I’ve come to recognize isn’t for everybody, but is valid and remains with me, independent of who provides me a seat at Dodger Stadium.

Speaking for myself and only for myself — I believe this organization’s response to doubt will be to push even harder toward the dream every Dodger fan wants.

In the meantime, there’s no value in being quick to assume the negative and dismiss the positive. Baseball is a process, and 2016 is only just beginning.