Depth before dishonor: No. 5 is alive in Dodger rotation

Kenta Maeda brings a 2.39 career ERA from Japan to MLB. (Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers)

By Jon Weisman

Almost notoriously, the Dodgers used 16 starting pitchers in 2015. But in one sense, that’s a little misleading.

You could organize them this way:

• No. 1 starter: Clayton Kershaw (33 starts)
• No. 2 starter: Zack Greinke (32 starts)
• No. 3 starter: Brett Anderson (31 starts)
• No. 4 starter: Mike Bolsinger and Alex Wood (33 starts)
• No. 5 starter: Carlos Frias, Mat Latos, Brandon McCarthy, Scott Baker, Joe Wieland, Brandon Beachy, Juan Nicasio, Eric Surkamp, Ian Thomas, David Huff, Zach Lee (33 starts)

Overall, this is a reasonable way to look at the five slots of the 2015 rotation, though I’m taking some small liberties here.

• A few of the starts from the No. 5 group were spot starts for one of the first four. Bolsinger, for example, didn’t make his first start until April 23, one turn after Huff got his first shot.
• Relief pitchers Yimi Garcia and Juan Nicasio technically started games before being followed in long relief by Surkamp and Thomas, but I’m counting the latter two as the de facto starting pitchers.

With those caveats, here’s the performance of each slot of the rotation last year:

Kershaw and Anderson are the relative constants. Each set career highs in some key categories last year, meaning they could slip off their peaks. On the other hand, each on Opening Day will be 28 years old and still in his prime.

The Greinke slot is the one that everyone focuses on, for good reason. There was going to be a dropoff from Greinke’s historic 2015 season even if Greinke himself returned — without him, the view down looks even steeper. But Scott Kazmir steps in to cushion the fall.

What really gets overlooked for the 2016 Dodgers is their gaping room for improvement in the back end of the rotation. The Nos. 4 and 5 slots combined for a 4.88 ERA in 2015 — with the No. 5 slot staggering home at 5.93.

Hyun-Jin Ryu gets in some throwing October 8. (Jill Weisleder/Los Angeles Dodgers)

Those numbers won’t come as a shock to those who followed the team last season — once the seasons of McCarthy and Hyun-Jin Ryu ended, there were band-aids of all shapes, sizes and colors. But few this offseason have paid attention to what that means for the 2016 Dodgers.

That talk about pitching depth isn’t a smokescreen.  

For the final two slots of the rotation, as well as to triage any injuries to the front three, the Dodgers can push forward the best of Kenta Maeda (2.39 ERA in eight seasons in Japan), Hyun-Jin Ryu (3.17 ERA, 2.97 FIP in two seasons in Los Angeles), Wood and Bolsinger. That’s before the Dodgers tap into a highly regarded farm system, non-roster arms, the return of McCarthy from Tommy John surgery, or in-season acquisitions.

Greinke is gone, and won’t be easily forgotten. But is the Dodgers’ overall rotation, game after game, now being underestimated? What actually is the bigger deal: Going from Greinke to Kazmir, or going from last year’s crop of No. 5 starters to this year’s?

Maeda and Ryu are key. If they combine for 50 starts with a sub-4.00 ERA — plausible if unguaranteed — and the 32-year-old Kazmir echoes the 3.10 ERA he had last year in the American League, the nights you cringe over a Dodger starting pitcher should be few and far between.