Dodger Thoughts

Jon Weisman's outlet for dealing psychologically with the Los Angeles Dodgers, baseball and life

Category: Bullpen (Page 4 of 5)

Mattingly says analytics have yielded new insights

Angels at Dodgers, 6:10 p.m.
Jimmy Rollins, SS
Yasiel Puig, RF
Adrian Gonzalez, DH
Howie Kendrick, 2B
Scott Van Slyke, 1B
Yasmani Grandal, C
Carl Crawford, LF
Juan Uribe, 3B
Joc Pederson, CF
(Brett Anderson, P)

By Jon Weisman

At the very end of a long exhibition season and before the beginning of an even longer regular season, Don Mattingly and the Dodgers have more information than you can imagine on their 2015 roster.

But in addition to what he has observed on the ballfields since pitchers and catchers reported to Camelback Ranch six weeks ago — and everything he already knew going in — Mattingly said that some of the new analytics he has seen have been revelatory.

“As we’re learning more about it, seeing a different set of numbers and ways to evaluate, it’s interesting to see how certain guys kind of fit in, where they’ve been really good and where their deficiencies are,” Mattingly said. “That’s been the most interesting part for me, going over player plans and things like that and seeing how different guys are really good at one thing — that you kind of noticed, but you didn’t really know to paint that picture — it’s been nice doing that.”

That data is another piece of the complex puzzle of player evaluation, ahead of Sunday’s deadline to finalize the Opening Day roster.

“It’s hard to totally look at Spring Training and just disregard (it), because you see it right in front of  you,” Mattingly said. “A lot of guys, their body of work, providing that they’re healthy, gives you a better indication of who they’re gonna be. So I think you kind of try to balance it.”

In the bullpen, for example, the distinctions might be quite fine.

“That’s been the hardest part for us,” Mattingly said. “We’ve had a number of guys who have thrown the ball well, a number of guys who we feel are in the same type of position in the bullpen — so those decisions are tough for us.”

In the time-honored tradition, Mattingly delivers the roster news, good or bad, to every player. But he’s not alone.

“I’m always a part of it,” Mattingly said, “and usually Andrew (Friedman) or Farhan (Zaidi) is in that meeting, just to make sure they’re hearing from everyone, if they have any questions about what we’re thinking. I think (because of) the conversations that we were able to have all through Spring Training … communication has been pretty good with guys knowing how we feel about ’em. You still never get away from knowing how hard it is to send a guy out, because everybody’s idea is to make the roster.”

Even after a set of relievers makes the team, their roles could be considered up for debate — especially given the effect not having Kenley Jansen for the first month. Mattingly and the front office have said since virtually the day of Jansen’s surgery that they’ll exploit matchups in deploying their relievers. Mattingly understands that the most crucial situation in a game might not be in the ninth inning, but he conceded that some pitchers don’t see it that way.

“It depends how you look at it,” Mattingly said. “The analytics look at high-leverage situations, and that may be in the seventh, may be in the eighth, where you’d want that guy pitching. But as far as (pitchers) are concerned, they look at it differently.”

Aside from the bullpen, one of the most closely watched decisions for Mattingly heading into the regular season is who the Dodgers’ starting center fielder will be. Joc Pederson has been the starter for all three games of the Freeway Series, but Mattingly stopped short of making it official.

“If you read between the lines, you see what we’re doing, but there are other conversations to have,” Mattingly said. “The way we want to frame it is maybe different than the way you want to.”

In case you missed it: Guerrero goes deep twice, gets one homer

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For more photos from Saturday, visit LA Photog Blog.

Dodgers at Giants, 1:05 p.m.
Joc Pederson, CF
Justin Turner, 1B
Yasiel Puig, RF
Yasmani Grandal, C
Andre Ethier, LF
Alex Guerrero, 3B
Kiké Hernandez, SS
Darwin Barney, 2B
Carlos Frias, P

By Jon Weisman

Alex Guerrero homered to left in his second at-bat of Saturday’s 5-4 Dodger victory over the Angels, but it was the out he made in the first inning that might be the Dodgers’ most memorable blast of the spring.

Guerrero, who finished 2 for 4, launched one to the 420-foot mark in center field, only for Angels center fielder Mike Trout to rise above the wall to grab it.

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Rangers at Dodgers, 1:05 p.m.
Jimmy Rollins, SS
Chris Heisey, CF
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Howie Kendrick, 2B
Scott Van Slyke, RF
Carl Crawford, LF
Buck Britton, 3B
A.J. Ellis, C
Brandon McCarthy, P

What else have we got?

  • One of the big points of discussion emerging after Saturday’s game was whether the pitching of J.P. Howell, David Huff, Paco Rodriguez and Adam Liberatore could encourage the Dodgers to carry more lefty relievers than you’d ever have expected. Ken Gurnick of MLB.com, Bill Plunkett of the Register and Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles lay things out.
  • J.P. Hoornstra of the Daily News has more specifically on Huff.
  • Joe Posnanski tells a baseball integration and acceptance story through the life of former Dodger Bobby Bragan.

In case you missed it: Kershaw sails, Gaudin ails

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By Jon Weisman

In his first start since his dental denting last week, Clayton Kershaw gave up one run in the first inning today, then delivered five shutout innings, striking out eight, in the Dodgers’ 9-6 victory over the White Sox.

Jose Abreu went 3 for 3 against Kershaw. The rest of the White Sox were 1 for 19 with a walk.

Yasmani Grandal was behind the plate today for Kershaw. “I’ve been watching his games and have a better feel for what he wants to do in certain counts, when to double-up and just see how he’s feeling out there,” Grandal told Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. “The more I catch him, the better I’ll get.”

Said Kershaw: “Better today. We were ahead in the counts more. I didn’t shake him off as much. It’s a learning process.”

Kershaw also sacrificed twice (once with two strikes) and had a two-out single.

After throwing 88 pitches today, Kershaw will scale back for his final Cactus League outing, scheduled on five days’ rest against Kansas City on Wednesday, according to Dylan Hernandez of the Times, before taking his Opening Day start on four days’ rest April 6.

The power-happy Dodgers delivered three more homers, including booming shots by Yasiel Puig and Kiké Hernandez and Jimmy Rollins’ first of the spring. Rollins also doubled and had four RBI, and threw out the quick Emilio Bonifacio today from the outfield grass.

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  • Chad Gaudin, who missed the 2014 season because of neck surgery, has had a recurrence of neck discomfort, according to Gurnick. Gaudin will have an MRI, the latest in a series following Brandon League (who will have a follow-up exam Friday from Dr. Neal ElAttrache), Erik Bedard and Hyun-Jin Ryu.
  • There was some pregame mischief today with Tommy Lasorda and a golf cart, writes Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles.
  • The Dodgers have sold their 3,000,000th ticket on their earliest date ever, the team has announced.
  • Don Mattingly, speaking to MLB.com’s Tracy Ringolsby about the concerns over low offense in baseball: “The commissioner (Rob Manfred) talked about banning shifts,” Mattingly said. “Why don’t we teach guys to hit? Go back to teaching hitters to use the whole field and keep the ball in the strike zone.”
  • It’s hard not to like Eric Stephen’s bullpen battle flowchart at True Blue L.A.
  • The Dodgers sit fourth in right field and 11th in left field on Fangraph’s positional power rankings.
  • If you can’t get enough overviews of the Dodgers’ top prospects, here’s Jim Callis of MLB.com with his latest.

In case you missed it: Power to the people

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By Jon Weisman

Back on Valentine’s Day, Cary Osborne made the case that the Dodgers should have at least as much power in 2015 than they had in 2014. While the regular season will tell the tale, so far Spring Training has done little to undermine the theory.

With four homers today in their 9-5 victory over San Diego, the Dodgers extended their MLB lead in exhibition tater trots with 37, seven more than the Kris Bryant-led Chicago Cubs.

Yasiel Puig started things with a monster blast that bounced off the wall in front of the Dodger clubhouse building in the first inning (following, it should be noted, a prime piece of small ball by Jimmy Rollins, who bunted for a base hit).

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Joc Pederson, Justin Turner and Scott Van Slyke followed with round-trippers.

Andre Ethier and Alex Guerrero, sharing the No. 7 slot in the order and left field, combined to go 3 for 4, including two doubles for Ethier.

Also from today …

  • The Dodgers might not have a designated closer while Kenley Jansen is on the disabled list, writes Bill Plunkett of the Register, and while some like David Aardsma argue differently, Jansen himself suggests that the idea of a ninth-inning mindset is overblown:

    “That’s how you start to (confuse) yourself,” Jansen said. “If you’re going to start thinking about eighth or ninth or whatever, you’re going to mess yourself up.

    “Let me tell you something – guys come in the sixth, seventh inning with guys on base, game on the line. That’s harder than what I have to do, going out there with a clean (ninth) inning. Sometimes they (deserve) the save because I get a clean inning.”

  • After today’s seven-pitcher bullpen game, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com takes stock of the relievers. Yimi Garcia, among others, continues to turn heads.
  • Stan Conte spoke to Tom Verducci of SI.com about the Dodgers’ new partnership with Kitman Labs to help prevent injuries.

    “The idea,” continued Conte, “is that you set these marks and if a player is having an issue with a lack of motion or lack of strength—and we know that because we can measure it two or three times per week—the program will alert you that this guy is declining in this area, and maybe you should take a look at him. We always talk about players who don’t tell you when they’re hurt, or they don’t know the difference between pain and an injury. Well, if we have the right system biometrics can tell us there is a slight decline before he gets injured.”

  • Don’t miss out on your Dodgers mini plan

Reliever quartet sent to minor-league camp, but numerous options remain

Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers

Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers

By Jon Weisman

Pitchers Julio Urias, Chris Anderson, Ryan Buchter and Josh Ravin — all non-roster invitees to Spring Training — today became the first four sent from Major League camp to the minor-league side this year.

Urias (18) and Anderson (22) are top starting pitching prospects, while Buchter (28) and Ravin (27) provide relief depth. The quartet had combined to allow four runs in 10 2/3 innings.

The Dodgers still have six non-roster relievers in camp, to go with 11 on the active roster, not to mention a few swingmen. Here’s the breakdown:

  • Righty relievers, no options: Chris Hatcher, Brandon League, Dustin McGowan, Juan Nicasio, Joel Peralta
  • Lefty relievers, no options: J.P. Howell
  • Righty relievers, can go to minors: Pedro Baez, Yimi Garcia, David Aardsma, Mike Adams*, Chad Gaudin, Ben Rowen, Sergio Santos
  • Lefty relievers, can go to minors: Daniel Coulombe, Adam Liberatore, Paco Rodriguez, David Huff
  • Righty relievers on disabled list: Kenley Jansen, Chris Withrow

*Adams requires retention bonus if not added to Major League roster five days before Opening Day.

Most logically, the Dodgers would start the season with the six no-option relievers and one of the four remaining lefty relievers (with such other lefties as Erik Bedard and Joe Wieland working starter innings in the minors). But with three weeks and change remaining until the season opener, there’s still time for that logic to change.

In case you missed it: Kick in the pants edition

Los Angeles Dodgers first workout for pitchers and catchers

For more photos from today, visit LA Photog Blog.

By Jon Weisman

Let’s see what’s underfoot …

  • Clayton Kershaw feels good but was very self-judgmental after his first bullpen session at Camelback, reports Ken Gurnick of MLB.com.
  • J.P. Howell and Joel Peralta are in their third city as teammates, writes Gurnick. (Eric Stephen of True Blue L.A. has more.)
  • Early arrival Yasiel Puig is the subject of this feature by MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince, who writes that “this morning, he was taking hacks off the pitching machine with a slightly different mechanical intention, trying not to wrap the bat over his head as much in his stance and keeping his hands just a tad farther from his right shoulder.”
  • Here’s how Corey Seager is out to make a good first impression, according to Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles.
  • Dan Haren officially reported to Spring Training for the Marlins, as this Associated Press story indicates.
  • David Schoenfield of ESPN.com’s Sweet Spot looks at some of the key non-roster invitees of the National League West.
  • Dick Young’s February 1957 story on the Dodgers’ purchase of Wrigley Field in Los Angeles was reprinted today by the New York Daily News.
  • Here’s a video clip from Thursday of Andrew Friedman and Don Mattingly discussing the Dodgers’ bullpen situation, courtesy of SportsNet LA.

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And more from social media …

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In case you missed it: The smokejumper quest continues

By Jon Weisman

Anthony Castrovince of Sports on Earth looks at whether MLB might slowly be stop being slaves to the closer mentality, embracing what I’ve long called the smokejumper concept.

“A weapon is a weapon, no matter what inning it is,” Indians closer Cody Allen said. “You just have to use that weapon to the best advantage of your ballclub.”

The more teams and relievers who subscribe to that theory, the better.

Another approach I offered, almost exactly 10 years ago (the names in the examples stick out), was as the Reliever Reciprocity Rule …

It’s very simple:

If you would use a reliever in a given moment in a game with a lead of X, you should use him with a deficit of X.

Examples:

  • If you would use Yhency Brazoban in a given inning with a two-run lead, you should use him in the same inning with a two-run deficit.
  • If you would use Eric Gagne in a given inning with a one-run lead, you should use him in the same inning with a one-run deficit.

Close games are winnable, whether you are in the lead or trailing. If the reliever is available to work with a lead, he is available to work without a lead. If he needs to rest that game, he needs to rest no matter what.

This goes with the Just Get the Out Rule: Use your best reliever in a tight situation whenever it comes up. If you need an out – give yourself the best chance of getting the out. Worry about the rest later. Rest pitchers when they need to rest – not because you’ve rendered them irrelevant by using lesser pitchers.

The RRR. The Just Get the Out. Learn it. Know it. Live it.

A decade later, my feelings haven’t changed. We’ll see …

Here’s what else is happening in the Dodger world:

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Daniel Coulombe learns from September stint

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By Jon Weisman

Lefty reliever Daniel Coulombe said he had absolutely “no idea” that he was going to get called up to the Majors in September, and considering he began 2014 with Single-A Rancho Cucamonga, who can blame him for his surprise?

At FanFest on Saturday, I asked Coulombe to reflect what he’ll take from the experience into 2015, when he will be competing for a spot in the Dodgers’ Opening Day bullpen.

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Change has come to the Dodger bullpen

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By Jon Weisman

Throughout the flurry of Dodger deals that greeted us in early December, I’d see a recurring question from folks on social media: “What about the bullpen?”

This puzzles me, because roughly two months before pitchers and catchers report, there has already been a significant teardown of 2014’s core relief corps.

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Kenley Jansen: The quiet storm

Kenley Jansen ranked second behind Aroldis Chapman among NL relievers in Wins Above Replacement, according to Baseball Prospectus. (Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers)

In 2014, Kenley Jansen ranked second (behind Aroldis Chapman) among NL relievers in Wins Above Replacement, according to Baseball Prospectus. (Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers)

Over at Dodger Insider HQ, we don’t think Kenley Jansen gets the national respect he deserves. In the October issue of the print magazine, Cary Osborne delved into what makes Jansen so great — and yet relatively anonymous. Click each image below to enlarge the page.

— Jon Weisman

Jansen 51

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Dodgers acquire pitchers Peralta, Liberatore from Rays

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By Jon Weisman

It was Friday morning in Tampa Bay but Thursday evening in Los Angeles when the Rays and Dodgers announced a trade: The Dodgers have acquired pitchers Joel Peralta and Adam Liberatore from Andrew Friedman’s former team in exchange for pitchers Jose Dominguez and Greg Harris.

Peralta, who turns 39 in March, had a 4.41 ERA and 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings in 69 games for Tampa Bay this year. His ERA in 2014 was deceptive; according to Fangraphs, his xFIP (expected fielding-independent ERA) was 3.11. With Jamey Wright a free agent, Peralta takes the crown as oldest active Dodger from 35-year-old Juan Uribe, who was the senior senor for a few weeks there.

Liberatore, a 27-year-old minor-league lefty who will also be added to the 40-man roster, had a 1.66 ERA and 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings in 54 games for Triple-A Durham.

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They join a Dodger bullpen mix that includes Kenley Jansen, J.P. Howell, Brian Wilson, Pedro Baez, Daniel Coulombe, Yimi Garcia, Brandon League and Paco Rodriguez, among others.

Going to Tampa Bay will be the hard-throwing 24-year-old Dominguez, who struck out 12 in 14 2/3 career MLB innings while allowing 10 earned runs, and Harris, a 20-year-old righty who had a 4.45 ERA and 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings in 87 innings for Single-A Great Lakes.

So you wanna build a bullpen …

Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers

Kenley Jansen is one of 10 MLB relievers to rank in the top 50 in WAR for the past three years.  (Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers)

By Jon Weisman

After being exposed in the 2014 National League Division Series, the Dodger bullpen has a bull’s-eye on it.

But revamping the relief corps is not only going to require some dexterity, scouting and analysis from Team Andrew Friedman, it’s also going to require a fair amount of luck.

Using Fangraphs, I pulled together lists of the top 125 relievers ranked by Wins Above Replacement from the 2012, 2013 and 2014 seasons. (To see the entire chart in an Excel file, click here, or look at the end of this post.) This cutoff point is fairly arbitrary, but it tells a story: Nearly half of the top 125 from 2013 failed to make the same list in 2014.

How rare is it to find, let alone acquire, a durable elite reliever? Only 10 relievers, including the Dodgers’ oft-underappreciated Kenley Jansen, have finished in the WAR top 50 for three consecutive years. Only one of those 10 pitchers, 37-year-old Seattle closer Fernando Rodney (last seen at Dodger Stadium blowing a 6-3, ninth-inning lead for the Rays in August 2013) has changed organizations since 2011.

How rare is it to find a reliever that’s reliably decent? Only 36 relievers, barely one per MLB team, finished in the WAR top 125 for three consecutive years.

How about just banking on a good reliever from last year? Out of the top 125 relievers in 2013, 65 (barely half) repeated in 2014. The Dodgers had two of those players in Jansen and Howell, which puts them at par for the course, though certainly not at the head of the class. Baltimore and Oakland each had five.

A late-season slump helped lower J.P. Howell's performance relative to 2013. (Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers)

A late-season slump helped lower J.P. Howell’s performance relative to 2013. (Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers)

A bit of the fluctuation results from relievers switching to or from the starting rotation. But there’s no escaping the level of inconsistency to be found in MLB bullpens — which makes sense, since nearly every reliever in existence would be a starting pitcher if he had a more dependable or varied arsenal.

Even though a reliever’s past credentials do count, there’s much to be said for making low-rent bets that maximize flexibility. In trading for a reliever, you risk giving away talent in exchange for a player whose quality, for the reasons outlined above, has an expiration date. Also worth noting is that 40 of this year’s top 125 haven’t changed teams since they were signed as amateurs. As Che Guevara of “Evita” said, “Get them while they’re young.”

Despite the calls for the Dodgers to improve the bullpen this past summer before the trading deadline arrived, it’s rare for quality relievers to change teams after the season begins. Only six of the top 125 relievers in 2014 were traded midseason, with three others available as free agents or on waivers.

So really, most of the work there is to be done on the Dodger bullpen — keeping in mind who’s already under contract for 2015 — has to be done before Opening Day. And it has to be done with a combination of risk-taking and restraint.

And then you hope for good luck.

Click to enlarge any of the files below.

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In case you missed it: Into the offseason

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By Jon Weisman

Above, a highlight package of the Dodgers’ 2014 season. Below, some odds and ends for the first offseason Thursday …

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Baseball’s Yeti: The multi-inning save

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For images from Saturday, visit LA Photog Blog.

By Jon Weisman

Dodger closer Steve Howe got the save in the final game of the 1981 World Series, but it was a save you have to rub your eyes and gawk at today.

The star-crossed lefty pitched the last 3 2/3 innings of the Dodgers’ 9-2 Game 6 victory over the Yankees. He threw 54 pitches, three nights after throwing 33 pitches in the final three innings of the Dodgers’ 8-7 Game 4 victory.

How Howe came to my mind today was simple: The Dodgers have a bonafide reliever supreme in Kenley Jansen, but he pitches in an era when it’s rare to see a closer get even four outs. Jansen hasn’t gone past that barrier since he pitched the final two innings of a 14-inning Dodger victory nearly 15 months ago, on July 10, 2013. He has pitched two innings 11 times in his career — never more than that, and none was a save opportunity.

Howlin’ Howe pitched at least two innings 11 times in the 1981 regular season alone, twice going three innings. Sometimes, he was rested, but in a week from May 9-15, for example, he pitched in five games, including a pair of two-inning saves in a three-day span.

However, Howe didn’t spend the entire ’81 postseason rattling off three-inning blitzes. He pitched exactly an inning four times in the first two rounds of the playoffs, then allowed two runs in a third of an inning in Game 2 of the 1981 World Series. The Dodgers basically cut loose on Howe when they knew there were few tomorrows remaining in the season.

Holistically, Howe represents not one but two aspects of a bygone era. One, of course, is the utter inattention to pitch counts. But another that’s more subtle but also extremely relevant is this: Perfection was not expected.

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Kenley Jansen closes out fouling Cardinals

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By Jon Weisman

It’s not that Kenley Jansen wasn’t dominant finishing off Saturday’s National League Division Series victory over St. Louis. It’s that the Cardinals almost seemed to ignore his dominance.

Jansen threw between 93 and 98 miles per hour on all but one of his 20 pitches, with good movement, but Yadier Molina and Kolten Wong combined to foul off six of the first 14 of them, while swinging and missing at only one pitch apiece. But Jansen did set each down, one on a nothing grounder to Juan Uribe, the other on a whiff.

Randal Grichuk, who homered in his first at-bat of the NLDS off Clayton Kershaw, was the last out but also the easiest, lasting five pitches but also swinging and missing at three of them, including the game’s finale.

In 11 days since September 23, Jansen has pitched in two games, throwing eight pitches on September 28 and the 20 Saturday. He’ll have another day off today, then be on call to go Monday and Tuesday in St. Louis. The chances that he’ll work more than an inning in a game have only risen.

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