Dodger Thoughts

Jon Weisman's outlet for dealing psychologically with the Los Angeles Dodgers, baseball and life

Category: Managing (Page 3 of 3)

Mattingly says analytics have yielded new insights

Angels at Dodgers, 6:10 p.m.
Jimmy Rollins, SS
Yasiel Puig, RF
Adrian Gonzalez, DH
Howie Kendrick, 2B
Scott Van Slyke, 1B
Yasmani Grandal, C
Carl Crawford, LF
Juan Uribe, 3B
Joc Pederson, CF
(Brett Anderson, P)

By Jon Weisman

At the very end of a long exhibition season and before the beginning of an even longer regular season, Don Mattingly and the Dodgers have more information than you can imagine on their 2015 roster.

But in addition to what he has observed on the ballfields since pitchers and catchers reported to Camelback Ranch six weeks ago — and everything he already knew going in — Mattingly said that some of the new analytics he has seen have been revelatory.

“As we’re learning more about it, seeing a different set of numbers and ways to evaluate, it’s interesting to see how certain guys kind of fit in, where they’ve been really good and where their deficiencies are,” Mattingly said. “That’s been the most interesting part for me, going over player plans and things like that and seeing how different guys are really good at one thing — that you kind of noticed, but you didn’t really know to paint that picture — it’s been nice doing that.”

That data is another piece of the complex puzzle of player evaluation, ahead of Sunday’s deadline to finalize the Opening Day roster.

“It’s hard to totally look at Spring Training and just disregard (it), because you see it right in front of  you,” Mattingly said. “A lot of guys, their body of work, providing that they’re healthy, gives you a better indication of who they’re gonna be. So I think you kind of try to balance it.”

In the bullpen, for example, the distinctions might be quite fine.

“That’s been the hardest part for us,” Mattingly said. “We’ve had a number of guys who have thrown the ball well, a number of guys who we feel are in the same type of position in the bullpen — so those decisions are tough for us.”

In the time-honored tradition, Mattingly delivers the roster news, good or bad, to every player. But he’s not alone.

“I’m always a part of it,” Mattingly said, “and usually Andrew (Friedman) or Farhan (Zaidi) is in that meeting, just to make sure they’re hearing from everyone, if they have any questions about what we’re thinking. I think (because of) the conversations that we were able to have all through Spring Training … communication has been pretty good with guys knowing how we feel about ’em. You still never get away from knowing how hard it is to send a guy out, because everybody’s idea is to make the roster.”

Even after a set of relievers makes the team, their roles could be considered up for debate — especially given the effect not having Kenley Jansen for the first month. Mattingly and the front office have said since virtually the day of Jansen’s surgery that they’ll exploit matchups in deploying their relievers. Mattingly understands that the most crucial situation in a game might not be in the ninth inning, but he conceded that some pitchers don’t see it that way.

“It depends how you look at it,” Mattingly said. “The analytics look at high-leverage situations, and that may be in the seventh, may be in the eighth, where you’d want that guy pitching. But as far as (pitchers) are concerned, they look at it differently.”

Aside from the bullpen, one of the most closely watched decisions for Mattingly heading into the regular season is who the Dodgers’ starting center fielder will be. Joc Pederson has been the starter for all three games of the Freeway Series, but Mattingly stopped short of making it official.

“If you read between the lines, you see what we’re doing, but there are other conversations to have,” Mattingly said. “The way we want to frame it is maybe different than the way you want to.”

It’s your call

Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers

“Should I swing or should I bunt now?” (Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers)

By Jon Weisman

We’re trying out a new short Dodger Insider feature — also appearing in the print magazine — in which you’ll get to play manager each month and pick the move to make in a given situation.

The setup: Dodgers and Angels are tied, 1-1, with none out in the bottom of the seventh inning. Carl Crawford is on first base with a single. Juan Uribe is the batter against Angels righty Jered Weaver, who has thrown 92 pitches. On deck is A.J. Ellis, followed by Zack Greinke’s spot in the order.

The question: Do you have Uribe look to swing away or attempt to bunt?

Your call: Tweet your decision to @dodgerinsider with the hashtag #DIyourcall, or state it in the comments below.

Don Mattingly on what NLDS decision he would change

NLDS-Game Four-Los Angeles Dodgers against the St.Louis Cardinals

Don Mattingly addresses the Dodgers after the final game of the NLDS. (Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers)

By Jon Weisman

Immediately after an end-of-season meeting with his coaches, Don Mattingly sat down with Dodger beat writers this afternoon for a final, cover-the-bases interview before heading off to the offseason — and impending fatherhood. Mattingly’s fourth son (in addition to two stepsons) has a due date in early December.

Ken Gurnick of MLB.com will have a recap of the 40-minute session (update: here it is), so I’ll just focus on a few of the many topics that came up, including one of the questions I asked: What was the most difficult decision he had to make during the National League Division Series?

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Baseball’s Yeti: The multi-inning save

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For images from Saturday, visit LA Photog Blog.

By Jon Weisman

Dodger closer Steve Howe got the save in the final game of the 1981 World Series, but it was a save you have to rub your eyes and gawk at today.

The star-crossed lefty pitched the last 3 2/3 innings of the Dodgers’ 9-2 Game 6 victory over the Yankees. He threw 54 pitches, three nights after throwing 33 pitches in the final three innings of the Dodgers’ 8-7 Game 4 victory.

How Howe came to my mind today was simple: The Dodgers have a bonafide reliever supreme in Kenley Jansen, but he pitches in an era when it’s rare to see a closer get even four outs. Jansen hasn’t gone past that barrier since he pitched the final two innings of a 14-inning Dodger victory nearly 15 months ago, on July 10, 2013. He has pitched two innings 11 times in his career — never more than that, and none was a save opportunity.

Howlin’ Howe pitched at least two innings 11 times in the 1981 regular season alone, twice going three innings. Sometimes, he was rested, but in a week from May 9-15, for example, he pitched in five games, including a pair of two-inning saves in a three-day span.

However, Howe didn’t spend the entire ’81 postseason rattling off three-inning blitzes. He pitched exactly an inning four times in the first two rounds of the playoffs, then allowed two runs in a third of an inning in Game 2 of the 1981 World Series. The Dodgers basically cut loose on Howe when they knew there were few tomorrows remaining in the season.

Holistically, Howe represents not one but two aspects of a bygone era. One, of course, is the utter inattention to pitch counts. But another that’s more subtle but also extremely relevant is this: Perfection was not expected.

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Whoever’s pitching, Matt Carpenter is hammering

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By Jon Weisman

On Friday, Don Mattingly was hit hard for not replacing Clayton Kershaw with J.P. Howell in the seventh inning.

Tonight, in the Dodgers’ 3-2 victory over St. Louis in Game 2 of the National League Division Series, Mattingly got almost as much grief when he replaced Zack Greinke with Howell.

Howell, whom it seems safe to say is in a slump after being at the top of his game for nearly the entire regular season, gave up a game-tying two-run homer to Matt Carpenter, the batter he would have faced with the bases loaded if Kershaw had been pulled one batter sooner.

It showed pretty starkly why Mattingly was reluctant to give up on his best pitcher in Game  1.

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On switching outfielders

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres

For more photo highlights from Wednesday, visit LA Photog Blog.

By Jon Weisman

I remember thinking in 2008, when Andruw Jones was in an ugly slump, that the Dodgers had no choice but to stick with him, because they weren’t going to win anything if he didn’t right himself. And then, as it turned out, the Dodgers created another choice, named Manny Ramirez.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS V SAN DIEGO PADRESBut I also remember, in 2014, calls to bench Carl Crawford and Matt Kemp when they were struggling.

On June 4, a week after Crawford had gone on the disabled list, Kemp had a .291 on-base percentage and .398 slugging percentage. The cries for Joc Pederson were probably never louder. Since that time, Kemp has a .380 on-base percentage and .535 slugging percentage (a .915 OPS) while finding a home in right field.

It was even worse in Crawford’s case. On May 2, Crawford had a .212 on-base percentage and .259 slugging percentage. He then started 17 of the Dodgers’ next 23 games — playing nearly every day against righties — and had a .389 OBP while slugging .565.

Crawford went on the disabled list for six weeks, and when he came back, the stats would indicate he was lost. On August 9, he was down to .268/.333 on the season — a .601 OPS. And people wondered aloud why Andre Ethier wasn’t playing.

But Don Mattingly saw good at-bats amid those struggles, and committed to Crawford. The reward: the hottest hitter in the majors, a .478 OBP and .614 slugging percentage, including an astonishing 9-for-12 with a walk, four doubles (three in Wednesday’s 4-0 victory) and home run in this week’s Padres series. On the just-concluded homestand, Crawford had a .533 OBP and slugged .897.

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People will criticize Mattingly for this and that, but rarely does he get credit for what turned out to be something quite savvy — recognizing that it was too soon to forsake Crawford and Kemp, even when others would have.

It’s hard to watch someone who has been as important to the Dodgers over the past decade as Andre Ethier languish on the bench. It’s natural to wonder what would happen if he received the everyday opportunities that Crawford, Kemp and Yasiel Puig have since the All-Star Break, and whether that would have made a difference in a season that has stuck him with a sub-.700 OPS. (As it happens, Ethier is 9 for 25 with a .448 on-base percentage off the bench since August 17, evidence that he has made the best of a reserve role and/or an argument that he should play more.)

I would only say that it’s also natural to wonder what Puig is capable of when he comes out of his own long slump, and based on what happened with Crawford and Kemp, it would be odd to assume he won’t. In other words, unless you think 2014 Puig is 2008 Jones, it might be worth waiting this one out.

Off-day reading: Defensive shifts and the Dodgers

Defensive shifts from May 2014 magazine

On this travel day for the Dodgers, here’s some topical reading from the May 2014 issue of Dodger Insider magazine. Chris Gigley contributed this piece on the nuances of the Dodgers’ approach toward defensive shifts. Don Mattingly, Tim Wallach, Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett were interviewed for the story. (Click the image to enlarge.)

— Jon Weisman

In case you missed it: Scioscia catches Hershiser (smile)

LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM VS LOS ANGELES DODGERS

By Jon Weisman

Now, that was a nice battery. True or false: Mike Scioscia caught Orel Hershiser’s first Major League start. Answer below.

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