Dodger Thoughts

Jon Weisman's outlet for dealing psychologically with the Los Angeles Dodgers, baseball and life

Category: Pitching (Page 10 of 16)

A.J. Ellis’ curveball to Josh Beckett is a strike

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Dodgers at Mets, 4:10 p.m.
Dee Gordon, 2B
Yasiel Puig, RF
Hanley Ramirez, SS
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Matt Kemp, CF
Carl Crawford, LF
Juan Uribe, 3B
A.J. Ellis, C
Josh Beckett, P

By Jon Weisman

Josh Beckett’s resurgence is rightfully getting attention, and the best piece about it came from the Register’s Pedro Moura, who chronicled how Dodger catcher A.J. Ellis urged Beckett to use his curveball more.

… And on April 11 in the Chase Field visitors’ locker room, four hours before the Dodgers played the Diamondbacks and two days after Beckett had been lit up in his 2014 debut, the catcher approached the pitcher with an urgent message.

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Zack Greinke too calm for a mania, but fully deserving

LOS ANGELES DODGERS VS ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Friday in Jon SooHoo can be found at the LA Photog Blog.

Dodgers at Diamondbacks, 5:10 p.m.
Kershaw CLXXXVI: Kershawlexander
Dee Gordon, 2B
Yasiel Puig, RF
Hanley Ramirez, SS
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Matt Kemp, CF
Carl Crawford, LF
Juan Uribe, 3B
A.J. Ellis, C
Clayton Kershaw, P

By Jon Weisman

Considering how hard it is to steal a headline these days from Yasiel Puig, just the fact Zack Greinke can get one speaks pretty loudly.

Not that speaking loudly is in Greinke’s nature to begin with, but that’s another matter.

In the Dodgers’ 7-0 victory Friday over Arizona, Greinke was at his best – and doesn’t that sound redundant?  Greinke, as you must know by now, has the longest streak of starts without allowing more than two runs in at least a century.

In a season plus a month and a half with the Dodgers, Greinke has a 2.49 ERA and 143 ERA+ with 265 baserunners against 209 strikeouts in 247 innings. In fact, in the 40-year-old free agency era, Greinke is well on pace toward becoming the greatest pitcher signing in Dodger history.

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The story of Zack Greinke’s dominance

Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers

By Jon Weisman

On April 11, 2013, Zack Greinke took a Carlos Quentin body blow that broke his collarbone.

Greinke came back to work May 15 with 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball, but three starts later, his ERA was up to 4.80, and as late as July 3, it was 4.30.

Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles DodgersOn Independence Day, Greinke apparently declared his freedom from the tyranny of Major League hitters.

Greinke has set a modern record by making 17 consecutive starts of at least five innings with fewer than three runs allowed. Not only that, if it weren’t for a two-out, sixth-inning, Jay Bruce home run on July 25, Greinke’s streak would be up to 21 starts – essentially, two-thirds of a current Major League season.

And though five innings has been set as the baseline for the streak, Greinke has actually thrown at least six innings in all but three of those games: September 22, April 1 and April 12. He left the September 22 game after five shutout innings on 72 pitches for some pre-postseason rest, and April 1 represented his first start of 2014 after a shortened Spring Training.

So don’t let the five-inning minimum fool you. Since the fireworks went off last July 4, Greinke thrown 138 innings of a 1.76 ERA, averaging 6 2/3 innings per start with 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings against 8.5 baserunners, and five strikeouts for every walk.

Yep, this is some streak.

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The crazy rise in strikeouts for the Dodgers

LOS ANGELES DODGERS V ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKSPhoto: 2013 strikeout leader Clayton Kershaw throws his simulated game Sunday.

By Jon Weisman

Dodger hitters have never struck out more than 1,190 times in a season, a record set in 1996. This year, they’re on pace for 1,501.

Dodger pitchers have never struck out more than 1,292 batters in a season, a record set in 2013. This year, they’re on pace for 1,543. And Clayton Kershaw hasn’t pitched in a game since March.

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April 20 pregame: Playing the elements

LOS ANGELES DODGERS V ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Diamondbacks at Dodgers, 1:10 p.m.
Dee Gordon, 2B
Carl Crawford, LF
Hanley Ramirez, SS
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Yasiel Puig, RF
Andre Ethier, CF
Juan Uribe, 3B
Tim Federowicz, C
Josh Beckett, P

By Jon Weisman

In 18 games so far this season, Dodger starting pitching has held opponents to one run or less 14 times (while going at least five innings). Which is pretty cool.

Los Angeles is 10-4 in those games. The four losses were:

  • March 30, when an ailing Brian Wilson allowed three eighth-inning runs after Hyun-Jin Ryu had pitched seven shutout innings in San Diego.
  • April 15, when Josh Beckett through five shutout innings and the Dodgers led, 2-1, in the ninth inning before San Francisco tied the game off Kenley Jansen and then outlasted the Dodgers in 12.
  • April 16, when Paul Maholm allowed one run in six innings but San Francisco scratched a game-winning run off J.P. Howell in the seventh.
  • April 18, when Zack Greinke allowed one run in six innings and the Dodgers twice rallied from one-run deficits, only to lose in 12 innings.

Each of these games is a what-might-have been-a-win, but note that the bullpen never a lead of more than one run to protect – and twice had no lead at all. Those are slim margins, indeed. Some, if not all, of those bullpen losses are really losses you could pin on the offense – not that the offense wasn’t challenged by playing at San Francisco.

Baseball today in a sense boils down to four elements: starting pitching, relief pitching, offense and fielding. (You could say two elements if you combined everything but offense into defense, but work with me.) If you have at least three of those elements working for you in a game, your chances of winning will be excellent. The Dodgers are a pretty good bet almost every day out.

Putting Kenley Jansen’s usage in perspective

LOS ANGELES DODGERS AT ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

By Jon Weisman

Kenley Jansen’s sudden appearance Saturday in a game the Dodgers led 8-2 heading into the bottom of the ninth (the score was 8-5 when he entered, and when he finished four pitches later) added to concerns that Jansen is being overworked early. The Dodger closer leads Major League pitchers with eight appearances.

Keep in mind, however, that Jansen’s totals are skewed by the Dodgers’ Australia start and numerous off days so far. Below is a small chart of Jansen’s appearances, how many days off before each appearance and how many pitches thrown.

Date Days Pitches
3/22 * 15
3/23 0 5
4/1 8 18
4/5 3 22
4/6 0 17
4/8 1 19
4/9 0 19
4/12 2 4
*Opening Day

In only two games this year has Jansen thrown more than five pitches without resting the day before, and he didn’t surpass 20 pitches in either of those games. The second game of the Detroit series on April 9 without a day off was a high-stress outing for April, but essentially that was his only such outing of the year.

While the 77 pitches he threw in five days last week is noteworthy, it’s also an anomaly.

Last year, Jansen pitched 27 games on zero days rest and was pretty amazingly effective, as you’ll see from this Baseball-Reference.com snippet:

KJ rest

This is not to suggest that Jansen should be used recklessly. Just offering some context.

Billingsley, Beckett look to move past rehab hiccups

By Jon Weisman

Chad Billingsley provided something of a scare when he felt a sensation in his surgically repaired right elbow during his first rehab assignment Sunday, according to media reports, but Dr. Neil ElAttrache has examined Billingsley and said there is no issue.

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Where are the Matt Kemp doubters tonight?

Kemp HRBy Jon Weisman

The tweets and comments you would see ridiculing Matt Kemp over the past year and a half were predictable, given the wave of negativity that can flourish online, but still plenty vexing.

Kemp would get torched for not being productive enough, regardless of how healthy he was. He would get torched for struggling to stay healthy at all.

His track record, seemingly, was worth nothing. The “What have you done for me lately?” gang never had it so good.

Tonight’s two home runs, two rousingly authoritative home runs in the Dodgers’ 6-2 romp over the Giants (recapped by Earl Bloom for MLB.com) don’t ensure that Kemp will regain his near-MVP form over the long haul. But it does put a spotlight on how silly it was for anyone to give up on him.

Kemp, who had played 399 consecutive games before the series of injuries began, could arguably be his own worst enemy — racing into walls, sliding awkwardly into home, trying to come back too soon. None of these plays spoke poorly of his desire or the fundamental talent he brings to the field.

As his comeback entered its most trying phase, over the winter when he couldn’t even run, the catcalls might have reached their peak. How frustrating it must have been for Kemp, to have to issue “Bull Durham”-esque “I’m just working” quotes for the most part because anytime he expressed a feeling about his true value, he risked being labeled selfish.

Maybe Kemp doesn’t want to sit on the bench. Maybe he doesn’t express that feeling well 100 percent of the time. Should that, or the injuries, have meant that he should be tossed aside like garbage?

Kemp had earned some rope, some patience, some faith, more than some people were willing to give him.

It was just one game of two homers tonight. It was just one series with 10 total bases, a walk and a 1.242 OPS. No one knows how many games he will play this year. But I bet more than a few people who doubted him are thinking twice now.

* * *

Tonight’s game generated one prize-winning bit of trivia. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the Dodgers had their most hits since at least 1900 without a single. The Dodgers had three doubles and four homers, evaporating their previous record of three doubles and two homers on June 25, 2002 in a 4-0 win over the Rockies at Dodger Stadium.

Not only that, the Dodgers struck out no fewer than 16 batters — half by Zack Greinke, the last four of them on a called third strike.

Chris Withrow added three more while nearly tying a record himself, using only 10 pitches to strike out the side. And how about Withrow this season? For a guy who was considered likely to start 2014 in the minors, allowing a single and a walk to the 17 batters he has faced while striking out eight looks pretty good.

Kenley Jansen also struck out the side in wrapping up the victory.

* * *

Yasiel Puig is day to day with a strained thumb ligament, according to MLB.com.

In case you missed it: Kemp, Beckett and more on Ryu

LOS ANGELES DODGERS VS SAN DIEGO PADRES

By Jon Weisman

Turnabout is fair play. Today, the other MLB teams get their turn, and we watch.

As far as the National League West goes, 1993 expansion partners Colorado and Miami (nee Florida) play at 4:05 p.m., with San Francisco at Arizona at 6:40 p.m.

Meanwhile, in the Dodgers’ world …

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You can’t stop Hyun-Jin Ryu — you can only hope he needs a pedicure

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Denis Poroy/Getty Images

Denis Poroy/Getty Images

By Jon Weisman

Last year, Clayton Kershaw went 19 innings before allowing his first run of the 2013 season. Hyun-Jin Ryu is approaching that neighborhood.

You can start the early campaign: Hyun for Cy Young.

Before Brian Wilson allowed three runs in the bottom of the eighth inning in the Dodgers’ 3-1 loss to the Padres (recapped here by Ken Gurnick of MLB.com), Ryu followed up his five shutout innings in Sydney with seven in Sydniego. It was a performance that quickly went from struggling to sterling, putting to rest any post-Australia concerns about toeture.

Struggling with location in the first inning against the Padres, particularly on outside pitches, Ryu loaded the bases with one out on a single and two walks. But the lefty turned Yonder Alonso’s comebacker into a 1-2-3 inning-ending double play.

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After allowing singles to the first two batters in the bottom of the second inning, Ryu went into high gear. He retired 16 batters in a row into the seventh inning, walked Tommy Medica, then drew his second double play, a 3-6-3 special off the bat of Will Venable.

Despite throwing 21 pitches in the first inning, Ryu finished with only 88, meaning he averaged 11.2 pitches over the final six innings. Staked with only the one run the Dodgers got in the fifth inning off Padres starter Andrew Cashner, he needed to be that good.

In his 12 innings this season, Ryu has allowed only five hits while walking four and striking out 12. According to Baseball-Reference.com, Ryu is the eighth pitcher in Dodger history and fifth in Los Angeles to pitch at least 12 innings of shutout ball in his first two starts of the year.

Having left his infielders with almost nothing to do in the Australia start, Ryu instead starved his outfielders tonight. Yasiel Puig caught two flies, Carl Crawford one and Andre Ethier none.

Ryu to start Sunday, Kershaw possible for Friday

LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM VS LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Darnell Sweeney strokes the game-winning hit in the bottom of the 10th inning of the Dodgers’ 5-4 victory over the Angels on Friday.

By Jon Weisman

Hyun-Jin Ryu has been cleared to start Sunday’s domestic opener at San Diego. In theory, Zack Greinke and Dan Haren will start the next two games, Tuesday and Wednesday, with Clayton Kershaw a strong possibility to take the mound in front of Dodger Stadium fans Friday against the Giants.

As Scott Miller writes for MLB.com, Kershaw’s situation is still a bit fluid.

Kershaw’s next step will be to throw with a little more intensity and see how he reacts to that.

“We’re not ready to put a timeline out there,” (Don) Mattingly said. “The next few days will be a little barrier to cross.

“We’re not going to let him go out unless he’s 100 percent. If he’s not 100 percent, we’re going to hold him back.”

If not Kershaw, the honor of starting the home opener could go to Josh Beckett, who wasn’t expected to make his regular season debut until mid-April. Paul Maholm appears ticketed for long relief unless other injuries come up.

Haren, by the way, will start tonight’s exhibition finale against the Angels in Anaheim.

Seth Rosin focuses amid uncertainty

Bullpen coach Chuck Crim watches Seth Rosin on Tuesday.

Bullpen coach Chuck Crim watches Seth Rosin on Tuesday.

By Jon Weisman

It’s coming down to the wire for Seth Rosin, though there’s always the possibility of the wire inching forward.

In other words, a roster decision will have to be made by Sunday afternoon on the 6-foot-6 righthander — unless it doesn’t.

The Dodgers can’t send Rosin to the minors, so when they trim the active roster to 25 players, they will have to carve out a slot for him, make a separate deal with the Philadelphia Phillies to keep him, or lose him. A late trip to the disabled list by a fellow pitcher could buy some time, but that’s an if-and-when.

That leaves a lot to swirl around in the 26-year-old’s head, but checking in with Rosin before Tuesday’s workout, his head seemed to be in the right place.

“I was talking with my good buddy Eric Decker, who was one of my roommates in college, and he said, ‘All you can do is work really hard,'” Rosin said. “Working really hard and busting your butt kind of takes the pressure away. So I’m kind of taking that approach this whole spring, and it’s been working so far.”

It’s been a bit of a whirlwind for Rosin, who was born 13 days after the Dodgers won their last World Series in 1988. The success he’s had this spring (1.64 ERA, 12 strikeouts against 13 baserunners in 11 innings) would be enough to get anyone excited, but it has come while he’s been in the process of transforming his pitching approach.

Pitching coach Rick Honeycutt counsels Rosin.

Pitching coach Rick Honeycutt counsels Rosin.

“Just the timing with my delivery and incorporating my lower half and having a good strong front side — just a lot of the things that pitchers work on,” he said. “I’m just kind of totally reinventing myself with my mechanics this spring, so I’m just going to keep going about that. I think I’m a pretty good listener and pretty coachable, so I’m just trying to take in every piece of knowledge and trying to be a sponge this spring and it’s been helping.

“I know I’m not a finished product, and the coaches will attest to that as well. I’m still working on a couple things that I know once I master those parts, then I think I’ll really be something special. I’m just going to keep going about it every day, and working with (Rick) Honeycutt and (Chuck) Crim and all the other pitchers, just keep working hard.”

Though he appeared in the Thursday exhibition against Team Australia, Rosin was the only pitcher on the 25-man active roster for the first two official games against Arizona that didn’t enter either game, but Rosin is practicing patience.

“I’m just happy that we started off 2-0,” he said. “Yeah, I was looking forward to getting my debut, but hopefully I’ll get a shot this weekend in these exhibition games and hopefully I’ll stick around for games after that. We’ll just have to see. This week’s going to determine a lot for me, so I’m just gonna have to keep working hard and go about my business.”

Rosin knows that however long it takes him to get in to his first Major League game — whenever and wherever that might be — he can’t afford not to be ready.

“There aren’t excuses in this game,” Rosin said. “You’ve got to perform when your name is called, and that’s what I’m going to do my best to do.

 

 

 

 

Dodger infielders Ryu grounders

By Jon Weisman

When shortstop Hanley Ramirez ended the fifth inning of the second game between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks by starting a 6-3 double play, it stopped something of a bizarre streak for the Dodger infield.

To that point, neither Ramirez, second baseman Dee Gordon or third baseman Juan Uribe had a putout or an assist behind starting pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu.

Ryu doesn’t exactly specialize in inducing wormkiller after wormkiller, but the second-year lefty from Korea did have a groundball percentage of 50.6 last year, according to Fangraphs. This game was something different.

Through three innings, the only grounder off Ryu was a first-inning single by Paul Goldschmidt, and the only ball a Dodger infielder touched was a line drive by Miguel Montero that was caught by Adrian Gonzalez. Ryu had three strikeouts and five outfield putouts.

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In the fourth, it really started to seem like Gordon, Ramirez and Uribe had made some kind of weird pact. Goldschmidt hit a line drive that Gordon allowed to go off his glove for an error. Then, after Ryu struck out Martin Prado, Ramirez fielded what should have been an inning-ending double-play ball, but didn’t throw to Gordon coming across and didn’t step on second base in time to even get one out.

Forced essentially to retire five batters in the inning, Ryu got Trumbo to fly out to a running Yasiel Puig, then struck out Gerardo Parra.

Finally, in the fifth, the Australian tide turned. After Didi Gregorious’ drive to Andre Ethier for the Dodgers’ seventh outfield putout, Ryu had a rare lapse in control, walking Arizona reliever Josh Collmenter on nine pitches. Then A.J. Pollock hit it on the ground to Ramirez, who broke ranks and made the double play happen.

The extra work that Ryu had to do in the fourth and the fifth might have forced him out of the game an inning early. Ryu finished his first outing of 2014 throwing 87 pitches, allowing only two hits and the walk while striking out five — and also singling to lead off the top of the third for good measure. The Dodgers led, 6-0, when Ryu’s day ended.

Behind Chris Withrow in the bottom of the sixth, Ramirez then started all three outs, beginning another 6-3 double play with runners on first and second and none out, and then ending things with a 6-3 assist on Montero.

Uribe, meanwhile, still waited for some action, any action at all, at third base.

March 14 pregame: Kershaw’s careful curveball

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Dodgers vs. Cubs, 1:05 p.m.
Dee Gordon, 2B
Carl Crawford, LF
Yasiel Puig, RF
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Andre Ethier, CF
Justin Turner, 3B
AJ Ellis, C
Miguel Rojas, SS
Josh Beckett, RHP

By Jon Weisman

Above, my favorite play of Spring Training to date: Justin Turner to Red Patterson on the fly …

Below, news and links aplenty …

  • Clayton Kershaw didn’t throw a single curveball with a three-ball count in 2013 and has done so only once since 2010, writes Cory DiBenedetto in a short analysis for Gammons Daily. Kershaw also hasn’t allowed a home run on his curveball — on any count — in the past four seasons. (In case you’re wondering, the famous “Public Enemy No. 1” curve came on a 1-2 count.)
  • Sam Demel and Kershaw are the scheduled starters for Saturday’s split-squad games. Both games are at Camelback Ranch, though the night game against the White Sox is technically a road game. For Kershaw, it will be his last game action before the regular season begins March 22 in Australia.
  • ESPN’s Future Power Rankings, which “attempt to measure how well each team is set up for sustained success over the next five years,” place the Dodgers third among MLB teams, behind Boston and St. Louis. A year ago, ESPN had the Dodgers eighth, which at the time struck me as too low given the team’s burgeoning resources.
  • Related: The Dodgers have the best “core five” in the game, according to David Schoenfield of ESPN.

    1. Los Angeles Dodgers
    Clayton Kershaw, Hanley Ramirez, Yasiel Puig, Zack Greinke, Adrian Gonzalez

    This group could be even better than it was in 2013 with full seasons from Ramirez and Puig. Greinke was so dominant over his final 16 starts (1.57 ERA) that he’s a reasonable Cy Young candidate behind his best-starter-in-baseball teammate. The fifth player on the list could be Gonzalez or Matt Kemp or even third starter Hyun-Jin Ryu.

  • Manny Mota, who has graciously passed his No. 11 jersey to Erisbel Arruebarrena, remembers Roberto Clemente in this interview with Lyle Spencer of MLB.com.
  • Stan Conte spoke in some detail about injury prevention and predicting injuries at the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) Analytics Conference on Thursday. J.P Hoornstra of the Daily News has details, and Christina Kahrl of ESPN.com has more as well.
  • Don Mattingly is back in camp today after two days away on bereavement leave.
  • Yasiel Puig went 4 for 10 in intrasquad play Thursday — he starts in right field today.
  • Scheduled to follow Josh Beckett, who is testing a sprained right thumb, on the mound today are Jose Dominguez, Paco Rodriguez, Javy Guerra, Chris Withrow and Jamey Wright.
  • Red Patterson pitched 3 1/3 shutout innings for the Dodgers on Thursday, but Seth Rosin finally gave up his first earned run. If you’re keeping track, Patterson has a 0.93 ERA this spring, while Rosin is at 1.64.
  • Rosin still leads the staff in strikeouts (12) and is tied with Hyun-Jin Ryu for the most innings (11).
  • Brandon League talked about his spring to Eric Stephen of True Blue L.A. Stephen also gets Mattingly’s thoughts on League’s progress.
  • Brett Tomko, 41 next month and seven seasons removed from his Dodger days, is going to Kansas City on a minor-league deal, a week after the Royals parted ways with a Dodger teammate of Tomko’s, Brad Penny.
  • Tim Newcomb of SI.com presents a vision of the ballpark of the future. Pretty pictures.
  • Thursday in Jon SooHoo.

In case you missed it: The curious case of Clayton Kershaw

Los Angeles Dodgers at Oakland Athletics

By Jon Weisman

The good news for Clayton Kershaw is, he’s healthy.

Not to mention that for the first two innings — six up, six down — of today’s 7-3 loss to Oakland, the Dodger ace made last week’s start look like every bit the aberration we thought it was. Six up, six down.

Then came a third inning which, as much as anything, was reminiscent of the third inning of Game 6 of the 2013 National League Championship Series.

Kershaw allowed two walks, an RBI single and another walk that loaded the bases. Then former Dodger Nick Punto came up, got ahead in the count and began fouling off pitches, just like Matt Carpenter did in his 11-pitch NLCS at-bat against Kershaw.

Punto won this marathon, singling to right field to drive in two more runs, and Kershaw was pulled mid-inning, ultimately charged with five runs.

And by the sounds of it, he was ready to sentence himself to pitcher jail. From Ken Gurnick of MLB.com:

… “It’s not fun to deal with,” said Kershaw, who has an 18.00 ERA. “Physically, I feel great. I don’t have any excuses. I don’t know, searching for answers right now. I know it’s Spring Training, it doesn’t matter, but it matters to me.”

Mattingly said he wasn’t panicking.

“The first two innings were really good, then he got out of rhythm and couldn’t find it,” Mattingly said. “Good thing is, it’s Spring Training, that’s why we’re here. He had the same kind of spring last year. He has a level of expectation of always being good. I don’t have a problem with that. He expects to be in midseason form, and we keep working toward that. He gets frustrated. That’s why we love him.” …

On the opposite end of the spectrum was Seth Rosin, who followed his two-inning, five-strikeout outing Wednesday by tossing three shutout innings with three strikeouts today. That included pitching out of a second-and-third, none-out jam in the fourth inning, thanks to an Adrian Gonzalez throwing error.

“This outing is actually more impressive to me than his first outing,” SportsNet LA analyst Orel Hershiser said on the air. “Today, he’s facing some adversity, against a team swinging the bat really well, and he’s still able to get them out.”

Rosin, by the way, was born in 1988, 7 1/2 months after Kershaw and a couple weeks after the Dodgers won the World Series.

Coming in behind Rosin on the highlight reel was Dee Gordon, who had an RBI triple for the second consecutive game, and Andre Ethier and Miguel Olivo, who each had two hits.

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