Pitching – Page 8 – Dodger Thoughts

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By Jon Weisman

It was a delight while he lasted.

Pitching in his first game in 24 days and making an actual full-fledged start for the first time in exactly a month, Hyun-Jin Ryu shone for the Dodgers in Game 3 of the National League Division Series.

Ryu only allowed the requisite Matt Carpenter home run over his six innings of work, plus five singles and a walk, while striking out four. And he seemed to only improve after facing his biggest challenge of the ninth.

One out after Carpenter’s leadoff homer in the third, Matt Holliday singled and Jhonny Peralta worked the count to 3-1. At this point in the game, Ryu had thrown 57 pitches and only had eight outs to show for it.

But Ryu struck out Peralta on consecutive changeups, then got Matt Adams to pop out (with Hanley Ramirez making an over-the-shoulder catch in no man’s land).

Ryu needed only 15 pitches total to sail through the next two innings, then finished his night with a perfect sixth. His final 10 outs came on 37 pitches.

Clayton Kershaw to start Game 4, Dan Haren part of nine-man bullpen in Game 3

By Jon Weisman

On October 6, 2014

In Pitching, Postseason, Pregame

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Dodgers at Cardinals, 6:37 p.m.
Dodgers
Dee Gordon, 2B
Yasiel Puig, CF
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Matt Kemp, RF
Hanley Ramirez, SS
Carl Crawford, LF
Juan Uribe, 3B
A.J. Ellis, C
Hyun-Jin Ryu, P
–
Cardinals
Matt Carpenter, 3B
Randal Grichuk, RF
Matt Holliday, LF
Jhonny Peralta, SS
Matt Adams, 1B
Yadier Molina, C
Jon Jay, CF
Kolten Wong, 2B
John Lackey, P

By Jon Weisman

All remaining mystery about Dan Haren’s role in the 2014 National League Division Series has been eliminated. He has been set up as tonight’s long reliever, and Clayton Kershaw has been announced by Don Mattingly as the Game 4 starter.

Nine of Haren’s 11 career relief appearances came 10 seasons ago as a newbie with the Cardinals. The 10th came 2 1/2 years ago in the 14th inning with the Angels, and he pitched a perfect inning. The 11th was in August 2013 with Washington, and he gave up a single while throwing another shutout inning.

In neither of those two recent occasions was he asked to rush into the game. So if Hyun-Jin Ryu got into any trouble early tonight in his first outing in nearly a month, you would no doubt see a short reliever in for damage control, while Haren took his time in the bullpen to get himself ready for the start of an inning.

Haren’s last competitive action came September 27, so he’s on eight days’ rest right now. He had a 2.43 ERA in his final 10 starts of the regular season with 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings and 50 baserunners in 59 1/3 innings. He had seven quality starts out of those 10.

Whoever’s pitching, Matt Carpenter is hammering

By Jon Weisman

On October 4, 2014

In Managing, Pitching, Postseason

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By Jon Weisman

On Friday, Don Mattingly was hit hard for not replacing Clayton Kershaw with J.P. Howell in the seventh inning.

Tonight, in the Dodgers’ 3-2 victory over St. Louis in Game 2 of the National League Division Series, Mattingly got almost as much grief when he replaced Zack Greinke with Howell.

Howell, whom it seems safe to say is in a slump after being at the top of his game for nearly the entire regular season, gave up a game-tying two-run homer to Matt Carpenter, the batter he would have faced with the bases loaded if Kershaw had been pulled one batter sooner.

It showed pretty starkly why Mattingly was reluctant to give up on his best pitcher in Game 1.

Closing out Game 1, moving on to Game 2

By Jon Weisman

On October 4, 2014

In Bullpen, In case you missed it, Pitching, Postseason

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By Jon Weisman

Over in the far-off reaches of the American League, the Detroit Tigers bullpen has been absolutely battered. In both his playoff games, Detroit manager Brad Ausmus has been ripped for removing a pitcher too soon.

Neither of those occasions came with Clayton Kershaw on the mound. Neither of them came in an inning that began after Clayton Kershaw had retired 16 of his last 17 batters with eight strikeouts, using only 74 pitches over that stretch and 81 in the game to that point.

I’m sympathetic to the argument that by the time nemesis Matt Carpenter came to bat in the seventh inning of Friday’s loss to the Cardinals, 21 pitches later, Kershaw was on thin ice. But I’m having trouble believing that anytime before that, Don Mattingly would have received less criticism for turning the final seven, eight or nine outs of the game to middle relief that has been darkly questioned all year long.

That’s not at all to say the bullpen would have failed, though the walk and home run surrendered by Pedro Baez to his first two batters was not reassuring — and J.P. Howell, who would have faced John Jay with the bases loaded in the seventh if many had had their way, allowed a leadoff single to Jay in the ninth.

It’s simply that between 1) a Kershaw that was allowing singles but also striking batters out, or 2) a fresh Howell or Baez, not only is the choice basically a tossup, but choosing the bullpen is betting against the player that has come through more often than any other pitcher in the game.

Put more bluntly: Imagine the reaction if Clayton Kershaw was in the dugout, having thrown 102 pitches on eight days’ rest, if and when the Dodgers lost their lead.

No one knows better than Kershaw that he didn’t come through. But if you think that he was destined to fail, or if you think he can’t win in the playoffs, or if you don’t think he can come back in his next start from the rare adversity that strikes, I don’t know what pitcher you’ve been watching all this time.

As for the struggles of the 2014 bullpen itself …

Starting pitching becomes startling pitching

By Jon Weisman

On September 17, 2014

In History, Pitching, Postgame

By Jon Weisman

Ten games to go. Ten games to find starting pitchers for.

That’s the puzzle I imagine most Dodger fans are trying to solve after Carlos Frias managed the near unthinkable – a game score of 0 – in today’s 16-2 loss at Colorado.

In allowing eight runs on 10 hits in two-thirds of an inning, Frias produced the lowest game score by a Dodger starting pitcher in 28 years, since Jerry Reuss allowed nine earned runs and 15 baserunners in four innings against the Phillies. Frias also recorded the fewest outs by any Major League starting pitcher who allowed at least 10 hits since at least 1901.

And Frias might have been lucky to get those two outs. One was an inexplicable caught stealing on a 2-0 pitch after the first five Rockies had combined for three singles, a double and a home run, the other an equally inexplicable squeeze bunt attempt when the team was 7 for 7 off Frias.

Asked to mop up, Kevin Correia fared well only by comparison, allowing five earned runs on seven hits and a walk in three innings without a strikeout.

The Dodgers have allowed at least 10 runs in three of their past six games, a disturbing ratio to be sure, though I would argue that in defeat, it doesn’t matter whether you lose by one run or 10.

Milwaukee lost its game to St. Louis tonight, lowering the Dodgers’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot to four. But San Francisco cut the Dodgers’ National League West lead to two games by scoring two in the ninth to defeat Arizona, and with the divisional magic number at 9, it’s natural to wonder how the Dodgers will play out the final 10 games of the season.

Dodger strikeout records likely to fall this week

By Jon Weisman

On September 15, 2014

In Offense, Pitching, Pregame

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Dodgers at Rockies, 5:40 p.m.
Dee Gordon, 2B
Yasiel Puig, CF
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Matt Kemp, RF
Hanley Ramirez, SS
Carl Crawford, LF
Juan Uribe, 3B
A.J. Ellis, C
Roberto Hernandez, P

By Jon Weisman

Sometime before the Dodgers return to Los Angeles from their final roadtrip of the 2014 regular season, they’ll have no doubt broken the franchise’s strikeout records for pitchers and hitters.

With 1,253 strikeouts on the mound, Dodger pitchers are 40 away from breaking the team record of 1,292, set in 2013.

With 1,149 strikeouts at the plate, Dodger batters are 42 away from breaking the team record of 1,190, set in 1996.

Despite the strikeouts, Dodger hitters rank second in the National League in adjusted OPS and first in Wins Above Replacement. Here’s a Cliff Clavin-worthy fact — despite the Dodgers’ team-record pace, 16 MLB teams this season have struck out more than they have. Los Angeles is two strikeouts above the MLB average of 1,147.

Ryu-Bumgarner kicks off weekend of great pitching in Dodgers-Giants series

By Jon Weisman

On September 12, 2014

In Pitching, Pregame

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Dodgers at Giants, 7:15 p.m.
Yasiel Puig, CF
Justin Turner, 2B
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Matt Kemp, RF
Hanley Ramirez, SS
Scott Van Slyke, LF
Juan Uribe, 3B
A.J. Ellis, C
Hyun-Jin Ryu, P

By Jon Weisman

With Zack Greinke pitching Saturday and Clayton Kershaw looming Sunday, San Francisco’s most favorable matchup in this weekend’s Dodgers-Giants series might be tonight’s, when Madison Bumgarner faces Hyun-Jin Ryu.

But even this one is practically a tossup.

Ryu: 3.5 WAR, 3.16 ERA, 2.60 FIP*, 3.02 xFIP**, 8.23 K/9, 1.16 WHIP
Bumgarner: 3.5 WAR, 3.02 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 2.93 xFIP, 9.09 K/9, 1.16 WHIP

*Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league average results on balls in play and league average timing.

*Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) is calculated in the same way as FIP, except it replaces a pitcher’s home run total with an estimate of how many home runs they should have allowed given the number of fly balls they surrendered while assuming a league average home run to fly ball percentage (between 9 and 10% depending on the year).

Ryu is Bumgarner’s equal in Wins Above Replacement, despite throwing 46 fewer innings so far in 2014.

Perhaps more impressively, Ryu ranks second in the National League behind Clayton Kershaw in FIP. In xFIP, the NL top five goes as follows: Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Greinke, Bumgarner and Ryu.

Bumgarner has had an interesting past couple of weeks. He struck out 25 in two starts August 21 and August 26, including 13 in a one-hit shutout of Colorado. But at Detroit on Saturday, he didn’t strike out anyone in six innings.

The last time Bumgarner faced the Dodgers, there was this.

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Dan Haren has a 1.70 ERA in his past seven starts

By Jon Weisman

On September 10, 2014

In Midgame, Pitching

Dan Haren, to say the least, has stepped up. He has also gone 94 batters since he last allowed a home run.

– Jon Weisman

Dodgers remain on record strikeout pace

By Jon Weisman

On August 30, 2014

In Offense, Pitching

For more photos from Friday, visit LA Photog Blog.

Dodgers at Padres, 5:40 p.m.
Dee Gordon, 2B
Hanley Ramirez, SS
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Matt Kemp, RF
Yasiel Puig, CF
Carl Crawford, LF
Justin Turner, 3B
Drew Butera, C
Zack Greinke, P

By Jon Weisman

Back in April – admittedly, when the season wasn’t even a month old – I couldn’t help but comment on the remarkable number of strikeouts that were piling up in Dodger games.

At the time, the Dodgers were far ahead of team-record strikeout paces both on offense and on the mound. Now that we’ve only got a month to go, and with the team striking out 15 times in their 3-2, 12-inning loss Friday, I thought I’d see where things stood.

Dodger hitting
1,190 strikeouts in 1996 (team record)
1,033 strikeouts to date in 2014 (135 games)
1,240 projected strikeouts in 2014
7.65 strikeouts per game in 2014
5.81 strikeouts per game needed to break record

Dodger pitching
1,292 strikeouts in 2013 (team record)
1,133 strikeouts to date in 2014 (135 games)
1,360 projected strikeouts in 2014
8.39 strikeouts per game in 2014
5.93 strikeouts per game needed to break record

So yeah, it’s practically a lock that those records are going to fall. Perhaps it’s just a symptom of the game’s evolution toward more and more strikeouts – even on its record pace, the Dodger offense is only fifth in the National League in whiffs. (Dodger pitchers rank first in the NL. )

However, it’s interesting that the strikeout record on offense is nearly 20 years old. The ’96 Dodgers had six players with at least 90 strikeouts, including 121 from Eric Karros, 122 from Raul Mondesi and 124 from … Delino DeShields.

Here’s the 2014 Dodgers’ record in big strikeout games on offense:

K W-L
16 1-1
15 0-1
14 1-1
13 0-1
12 1-4
11 7-6
10 5-3
9 7-5
9+ 22-22

From the magazine: The quirks that work

By Jon Weisman

On August 21, 2014

In Pitching

Wanted to share this fun feature by Cary Osborne from the August edition of Dodger Insider magazine that looks at the oddities in the pitching motions for such Dodgers as Clayton Kershaw and J.P. Howell. Click on each image below to enlarge the pages.

— Jon Weisman

Rotation rolls on, Dodgers roll home after 6-4 win completes 6-3 trip

By Jon Weisman

On August 14, 2014

In Pitching, Postgame

By Jon Weisman

With Roberto Hernandez scattering three hits and four walks over his six innings in the Dodgers’ 6-4 victory at Atlanta today — admittedly needing 118 pitches, second-most for a Dodger this year behind only Josh Beckett in his no-hitter — the Dodgers’ No. 4, 5 and 6 starters continued their roadtrip dominance, lowering their ERA to 2.01 with 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings.

Seemingly toying with the Braves offensively, the Dodgers took a 5-1 lead into the eighth inning. Dee Gordon (3 for 4 with a walk, two bunt singles and two steals) scored the first of his four runs while coffee was still being sipped in Los Angeles, and Drew Butera added a big blow with a two-run homer in the second inning. Los Angeles had 58 baserunners in the four-game series in Atlanta, including at least 10 hits in each game.

Yasiel Puig was picked off again and thrown out at home but had three hits, a hit by pitch and the defensive play of the game.

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The Dodgers had to hang on after Brian Wilson gave up hits to the first three batters in the bottom of the eighth, all of whom scored. Kenley Jansen allowed one inherited runner to score before striking out Evan Gattis to end the eighth inning. Adrian Gonzalez drove in his second run of the game in the ninth for some welcome insurance. Jansen then completed the save in the ninth, despite allowing a single and a double, finishing with four strikeouts.

Los Angeles finished off a 6-3 trip against the Angels, Brewers and Atlanta, and the pitching staff had a 2.65 ERA. The Dodgers are 16-10 (.615) since the All-Star Break, 15-8 (.652) against teams with winning records.

Brian Wilson still sees a knuckleball in his future

By Jon Weisman

On August 13, 2014

In Pitching

Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers

By Jon Weisman

Brian Wilson has been pretty strong for the Dodgers for some time now, as Mike Petriello underscores at Dodgers Digest today. Since May 14, Wilson has a 2.05 ERA with 34 strikeouts in 26 1/3 innings and an opponents’ OPS of only .570.

Both Petriello in his piece and Orel Hershiser on television have commented on Wilson’s increased use of the curveball, with Hershiser saying at first he thought Wilson might be mixing in the knuckleball he showed in Spring Training. Hershiser later said he was mistaken, but in a conversation I had with Wilson in the Dodger clubhouse July 31, the 32-year-old reliever said he still thinks about reinventing himself as a knuckleballer someday.

On Kevin Correia and the upside of inconsistency

By Jon Weisman

On August 11, 2014

In Pitching, Pregame, Transactions

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Dodgers at Braves, 4:10 p.m.
Dee Gordon, 2B
Yasiel Puig, CF
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Matt Kemp, RF
Carl Crawford, LF
Justin Turner, 3B
A.J. Ellis, C
Miguel Rojas, SS
Kevin Correia, P
Note: Pedro Baez has been optioned to Albuquerque to make room for Correia on the roster.

By Jon Weisman

Kevin Correia takes the mound tonight, in his first start for the Dodgers, with the lowest strikeout rate (4.24 per nine innings) of any Major League starting pitcher since 2013.

Correia has faced an average of 25 batters per start this year, striking out 11 percent of them. Approximately nine out of every 10 batters against Correia either walks or puts the bat on the ball.

Perhaps you’re wondering how this ends well for the Dodgers.

One thing to consider is the value of inconsistency. In 13 of his 23 starts this season, Correia has held the opposition to three runs or less. That doesn’t speak well of the other 10 appearances, and five of them, in which he allowed more runs than innings pitched, are best not spoken of at all.

The point here isn’t to try to spin Correia into the second coming of Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke or Hyun-Jin Ryu. He’s a clear tier below. But the goal is to offer a little perspective, and I can’t think of a more artful way to say it than this: Below average is not the same as hopeless, and a below-average acquisition is not the same as a pointless one.

If I told you, without naming names, that the Dodgers had a 57 percent chance of a quality start tonight, you wouldn’t despair that the game was lost, nor should you. And that’s from a spot starter whose assignment is to give the other five starting pitchers a breather.

There’s an argument that the Dodgers could have turned to Carlos Frias or a current minor-leaguer to fill that role, an argument that I’m sympathetic to (mainly because I’m reflexively eager to see a kid thrust onstage), but whether that’s the right argument isn’t clear. If the goal for this pitcher is to eat up innings and keep the Dodgers in the game, and we assume that the cost of acquiring Correia is low, it’s not obvious that an in-house candidate is a better choice than Correia right now.

Correia generally keeps the ball in the park, allowing home runs in nine of his 23 games this year. He generally puts the ball over the plate, walking two or fewer in 20 of 23 games. The rest he mostly leaves up to giving his defense a chance at the ball. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn’t. But he gives you that chance.

If it doesn’t work out with Correia or Roberto Hernandez, the Dodgers can then theoretically turn to Frias, Red Patterson, Zack Lee or Chris Reed if they need to. The reverse isn’t necessarily true. Given that other teams need rotation help as well, it’s not obvious that Correia and Hernandez would have been around in a week or two. Some of you might be laughing at that, but ask the Angels, for example, whom they can turn to for depth now that Tyler Skaggs is having Tommy John surgery.

Every little bit can help, even if it doesn’t help every single time.

Dodgers’ use of minor-league starting pitchers has been at rare low

By Jon Weisman

On August 2, 2014

In Pitching

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By Jon Weisman

If the Dodgers are looking to replace Dan Haren in their starting rotation while having to also place Paul Maholm on the disabled list, following the rough events of the team’s 8-2 loss to the Cubs on Friday, it could mark the end to an unusual trait of this season’s starting pitching.

Each of the previous nine years under general manager Ned Colletti, the Dodgers have dipped into their minor-league pitching at least 10 starts and often many more. But through the first 110 games of 2014, only two games have been started by minor-league pitchers.

Starts by Dodger minor-league pitchers
2014: 2 (Stephen Fife, Red Patterson)
2013: 16 (Stephen Fife 10, Matt Magill 6)
2012: 15 (Nathan Eovaldi 10, Stephen Fife 5)
2011: 22 (Rubby De La Rosa 10, Nathan Eovaldi 6, Dana Eveland 5, John Ely 1)
2010: 19 (John Ely 18, James McDonald)
2009: 22 (Eric Stults 10, Eric Milton 5, James McDonald 4, Charlie Haeger 3)
2008: 30 (Clayton Kershaw 21, Eric Stults 7, Jason Johnson 2)
2007: 11 (Hung-Chih Kuo 6, Eric Stults 5)
2006: 23 (Chad Billingsley 16, Aaron Sele 5, Eric Stults 2)
(Note: This list doesn’t included midseason acquisitions, nor pitchers primarily moving between the Dodgers’ bullpen and their rotation.)

Every year has its own flavor. In 2006, for example, the Dodgers had more than one veteran pitcher (Brett Tomko, Mark Hendrickson, Jae Weong Seo) end up in the Maholm role, in the same year that Chad Billingsley ultimately came up and claimed a spot in the rotation, while Aaron Sele bought them a month. In 2008, the Dodgers had the arrival of 20-year-old Clayton Kershaw and the return of 42-year-old Greg Maddux in the same season. In 2010, John Ely was essentially the Dodgers’ only starter from the minors, but he held a spot in the rotation from late April into July, the same year that a Rule 5 pickup (Carlos Monasterios) took 13 starts and only after another pseudo-minor leaguer, Charlie Haeger, had gone awry.

In any case, that the Dodgers would get 108 out of their first 110 starts from six veteran pitchers who have been with the team all season has no recent precedent.

One other thing I would add is that because of the pro-hitting environment in the Pacific Coast League, the minor leaguers who have been used (whether veterans hanging on or rookies coming up) sometimes perform better with the Dodgers than they have in Triple-A.

Eric Stults in 2008: 3.82 ERA in AAA, 3.49 with Dodgers
Charlie Haeger in 2009: 3.55 in AAA, 3.32 with Dodgers
John Ely in 2010: 6.22 ERA in AAA, 5.49 with Dodgers (2.54 in first seven starts)
Stephen Fife in 2012: 4.66 ERA in AAA, 2.70 with Dodgers

The romance of a minor-leaguer seizing his moment in his first big-league trial is never far away.

Red Patterson (5.70 ERA), Zach Lee (5.22 ERA) and Carlos Frias (5.01 ERA) are the top three candidates from Albuquerque should the Dodgers look to call up a starting pitcher from there, with Chris Reed (3.32 ERA) the top name from Double-A Chattanooga — which in 2011 pushed Nathan Eovaldi and Rubby De La Rosa directly to the big leagues. (Chad Moriyama of Dodgers Digest has more on these options.)

Of course, if the Dodgers keep Haren in their rotation but Maholm still goes on the DL, then several more relief pitchers are on the table for a recall. And the passing of the non-waiver trading deadline doesn’t preclude the Dodgers from picking up a pitcher from outside the franchise, should they so choose.

The Dodgers’ starting rotation: Weird, wacky and wonderful wins

By Jon Weisman

On July 29, 2014

In Pitching, Pregame

Braves at Dodgers, 7:10 p.m.
Dee Gordon, 2B
Yasiel Puig, CF
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Hanley Ramirez, SS
Carl Crawford, LF
Matt Kemp, RF
Juan Uribe, 3B
Drew Butera, C
Josh Beckett, P

By Jon Weisman

Asked to explain the key factor in the Dodgers’ sweep of San Francisco this past weekend, Clayton Kershaw replied with a laugh.

“It’s just Donnie finally putting the right lineup out there,” Kershaw said Monday at the Los Angeles Sports and Entertainment Dodgers All-Access event at Dodger Stadium. “It’s about time he got it right.”

Though there’s no doubt some are inclined to take him seriously, Kershaw was clearly joking. While it’d be nice to think that there is a magic lineup that would make the Dodgers unstoppable, a bigger reason for the sweep was probably a different decision that Mattingly & Co. made, setting up the Dodgers’ top three starting pitchers to face … not the Giants’ top three starting pitchers.

Dodger Thoughts

Jon Weisman's outlet for dealing psychologically with the Los Angeles Dodgers, baseball and life

Category: Pitching (Page 8 of 16)

Think positive: NLCS Game 1 starter Hyun-Jin Ryu makes strong return in NLDS Game 3

Clayton Kershaw to start Game 4, Dan Haren part of nine-man bullpen in Game 3

Whoever’s pitching, Matt Carpenter is hammering

Closing out Game 1, moving on to Game 2

Starting pitching becomes startling pitching

Dodger strikeout records likely to fall this week

Ryu-Bumgarner kicks off weekend of great pitching in Dodgers-Giants series

Dan Haren has a 1.70 ERA in his past seven starts

Dodgers remain on record strikeout pace

From the magazine: The quirks that work

Rotation rolls on, Dodgers roll home after 6-4 win completes 6-3 trip

Brian Wilson still sees a knuckleball in his future

On Kevin Correia and the upside of inconsistency

Dodgers’ use of minor-league starting pitchers has been at rare low

The Dodgers’ starting rotation: Weird, wacky and wonderful wins

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