Dodger Thoughts

Jon Weisman's outlet for dealing psychologically with the Los Angeles Dodgers, baseball and life

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Remembering 2011: Jon Garland


Chris Carlson/APJon Garland (45)

The setup: After starting six games down the stretch for the Dodgers in 2009 (but then going unused that postseason), Garland ambled down to San Diego for 2010, pitching exactly 200 innings with 136 strikeouts and a 3.47 ERA (106 ERA+). The Dodgers then signed him as a free agent in November to a one-year contract with a $5 million base and $3 million in potential incentives. Durability was one of Garland’s claims to fame, though even Garland noted that the MRI associated with his physical raised concerns.

The closeup: March 9. That’s how quickly the injury bug bit Garland, leaving the mark of a left-oblique injury. That delayed his regular-season debut until April 15, a rather predictably shaky four-inning outing against St. Louis.

But in his follow-up, Garland threw a complete-game, four-hit, 6-1 victory over Atlanta, and he was off to the races. It was the first of five consecutive quality starts in which he had a 2.65 ERA over 34 innings (though only one was a victory, thanks to the Dodger offense averaging 2.6 runs per game behind him). Garland’s original team, the White Sox, hammered him May 21, but then two more quality starts followed. By June 1, Garland had made nine appearances and seven of them were quality starts – not bad for the team’s No. 5 starter.

Oh, and then his season ended. A right-shoulder injury that required arthroscopic surgery put Garland on the disabled list, and he never came off.

Coming attractions: On October 4, the Dodgers said they would pay $500,000 to exercise the buyout of Garland’s $8 million option for 2012, bidding farewell to the Granada Hills Robert Frost Middle School graduate for the second time in 24 months and helping pave the way for Friday’s Chris Capuano signing. In two stints with Los Angeles, Garland made a total of 15 starts with a 3.69 ERA and 54 strikeouts in 90 1/3 innings.

Ken Gurnick of MLB.com wrote in October that in September, Garland said “his recovery was ahead of schedule, and that he intended to begin throwing in November … (and) be healthy by Spring Training.” He should earn interest from some team willing to bet on his rebound.

Remembering 2011: Jerry Sands


Kelvin Kuo/US PresswireJerry Sands (44)

The setup: The Dodgers’ top minor-league hitter in 2010 (with a .395 on-base percentage, .586 slugging percentage and 35 homers in 590 plate appearances combined at Single-A Great Lakes and Double-A Chattanooga), Sands was in position to make his big-league debut in 2011. His timetable depended on his continued development in Triple-A and the effectiveness of the Jay Gibbons-Marcus Thames-Tony Gwynn Jr. left-field combo.

The closeup: Much sooner than expected, on April 18, Sands was called up as Xavier Paul was designated for assignment. That night, Sands had an RBI double in his first major-league at-bat, one of 10 doubles he had in his first 87 plate appearances. He had a three-hit game April 25, a four-hit game May 22 and a grand slam May 24, his second home run in four games. Following the slam, however, Sands slumped, going 3 for 33 with two walks and no extra-base hits. With Gibbons, Thames and Gwynn making a rare simultaneous appearance on the active roster, the decision was made June 9 to send Sands back to Albuquerque, where he could not only play every day but work on some long-term adjustments with his swing.

Sands did take a step back as he redeveloped himself, with his Isotopes OPS falling to .670 during July, but after August 1 he had a .900 OPS with 11 homers in 33 games in Triple-A. Then, when he came back to the Dodgers in September, Sands kind of caught fire, batting .342 (25 for 73) with a .415 on-base percentage, .493 slugging, .908 OPS, eight walks, five more doubles and two home runs.

He finished his rookie Dodger season on his 24th birthday, with a .338 on-base percentage, .389 slugging percentage and 15 doubles in 227 plate appearances.

Coming attractions: With only four home runs in the majors, Sands still has something to prove in the power department, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t right now the franchise’s third-best outfielder behind Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. Rivera, who received millions from the Dodgers this offseason, had an OPS in Los Angeles of .740 last year compared to Sands’ .727 – you tell me how you think those will trend next year.

Nevertheless, pending the official signing of a 2012 contract by James Loney, there’s no place in the regular 2012 Dodger lineup for Sands. At best, he could platoon against left-handed pitchers with Ethier or Loney, if the Dodgers had the cutthroat approach to play things that way with two of their longtime starters. Sands went 22 for 60 with seven walks, seven doubles and three homers for a 1.066 OPS against lefties for the Dodgers.

Otherwise, it seems quite possible that Sands will begin 2012 as he began 2011 – in the minors, waiting for an opening – but with more confidence that he can handle the promotion once it arrives.

Dodgers on the 2012 Hall of Fame ballot

Getty ImagesOfficial Hall of Fame candidates Fred McGriff, Jeromy Burnitz and Brian Jordan were 2003 Dodger teammates, though the trio never appeared the same game together for Los Angeles.

Here is the 2012 Hall of Fame ballot mailed this week to the approximately 600 voting members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. Former Dodgers (plus a manager) are in bold:

Jeff Bagwell, Jeromy Burnitz, Vinny Castilla, Juan Gonzalez, Brian Jordan, Barry Larkin, Javy Lopez, Edgar Martinez, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Jack Morris, Bill Mueller, Terry Mulholland, Dale Murphy, Phil Nevin, Rafael Palmeiro, Brad Radke, Tim Raines, Tim Salmon, Ruben Sierra, Lee Smith, Alan Trammell, Larry Walker, Bernie Williams, Tony Womack, Eric Young.

Go Raines!

Hey, what’s going on?


Some midweek news and notes …

  • Best friend of Dodger Thoughts and ESPN reporter Molly Knight and her friend and fellow ESPN contributing writer Anna Katherine Clemmons have had the story of their cross-country road trip (which began as fodder for a magazine article) optioned for a movie. My Variety colleague Jeff Sneider has the details.
  • Larry King is reportedly joining the Dennis Gilbert-headed group bidding to by the Dodgers, reports Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com.
  • Hank Aaron inquired whether Medallion Financial Corp., on which he serves on the board of directors, might make a bid to by the Dodgers, according to Bill Shaikin of the Times. The answer: No.
  • A bow-hunting trip (no, not the kind where you hunt Ken Rosenthal’s ties) with Royals outfielder Jeff Francoeur and manager Ned Yost helped lure Jonathan Broxton to Kansas City, writes Kevin Kernan of the New York Post (via Hardball Talk).
  • Jim Breen of Fangraphs takes a closer look at Kenley Jansen’s dominant fastball, an interesting piece given what we’ve heard of Jansen’s eventual desire to emulate Mariano Rivera. “The 24-year-old not only threw approximately 87% fastballs in 2011, but he also filled up the strike zone,” writes Breen. “Only relievers Matt Belisle, Octavio Dotel, and Matt Capps threw more pitches inside the zone than Jansen. So opposing hitters knew which pitch he was going to throw and knew that it would more than likely be within the strike zone, but opposing hitters still struck out 44% of the time.”
  • Here are some childhood photos of Clayton Kershaw with longtime buddy Matthew Stafford, the Detroit Lions quarterback.
  • And, here’s a great prep school picture of birthday boy Vin Scully via Tom Hoffarth of the Daily News.
  • Some nifty portraits accompany this interview by Ernest Reyes of Blue Heaven with artist Tommervik.
  • Evan Bladh looks back at the 2003 Dodgers at Opinion of Kingman’s Performance.
  • Ken Arneson discusses the two systems of thought with regards to statistics, and how they relate to kids learning to read.
  • In a guest post for The Platoon Advantage, Dan Hennessy explains why “the less I hear my team’s name associated with free agency, the happier I am.”
  • Very, very cool skiing and outdoors footage in “Winter,” which will screen at the Village in Westwood on Sunday.
  • Finally, if you haven’t seen “Beginners” with Ewan McGregor, Christopher Plummer, Melanie Laurent and Goran Visnjic, I really recommend it.

Remembering 2011: Jonathan Broxton


Jake Roth/US PresswireJonathan Broxton (43)

The setup: The polarizing pitcher whose mostly dominant career was marred by two notorious postseason setbacks entered his free-agent year hoping to recover from his biggest struggles yet – having allowed 62 baserunners and 26 runs in 29 2/3 innings dating back to his infamous 48-pitch outing against the Yankees on June 27, 2010.

The closeup: Both Broxton and general manager Ned Colletti asserted that health was not an issue with Broxton’s struggles, with Colletti saying a physical backed up their claim. But was something missed? Entering the year with 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings since his 2005 debut, Broxton fanned only one batter in his first five outings (4 1/3 innings) while allowing two home runs. Then, when his strikeouts increased, his runs allowed did as well. After he allowed two runs on three hits in an inning against St. Louis on April 18, we found ourselves here:

… I really think it’s important to be clear about this. For the longest time, the concern that Broxton’s detractors had was not that he couldn’t get anyone out, but just that he wouldn’t get the job done in October. The explanation offered the most was that he didn’t have the backbone, guts or other relevant body part to succeed under pressure.

I never bought into that argument, because I saw Broxton succeed too many times under pressure – including in the playoffs – to see a pattern, and that given another opportunity, there were more reasons to believe he would succeed than there were that he’d fail. Many more reasons. Baseball history is filled with onetime October failures who found redemption. …

… The problems of Jonathan Broxton today are different problems entirely.

Broxton is having trouble getting people out, period. He has retired the side in order once in eight outings. He has allowed 13 baserunners in 7 1/3 innings while striking out five. He’s being touched not just in save situations but in non-save situations. He’s allowing runs not in playoff games in October, but midweek games in April. …

Two scoreless outings brought some temporary relief for the reliever, but on April 25, Broxton was charged with a blown save thanks to two unearned runs at Florida, an outing that led to questions about whether he was still the Dodger closer or not. He allowed three hits and a run while picking up a save April 29.

Then came May 3:

Jonathan Broxton has given Dodger fans a lot of heartache this year, but tonight he looked as sickly as he ever has in my memory.

Broxton entered tonight’s game in the ninth inning of a 1-1 tie. After retiring Aramis Ramirez on two fouls and a popout, Broxton walked the next two batters on eight pitches, and few of them were close to the strike zone. According to MLB Gameday, the pitches were all fastballs, one reaching 93 miles per hour and the average at 91. That’s just not the Broxton of 12 months ago, and I’m not convinced it’s even the Broxton of 12 weeks ago.

People have been strangely fascinated with Broxton’s facial expressions and posture, but here’s a suggestion: Someone needs to look at his arm. Even if they’ve looked at it before, look at it again.

After the first walk, Blake Hawksworth began warming up in the bullpen, and after the second, Don Mattingly came to the mound. He talked to Broxton and the other assembled Dodgers, clearly stalling for time as Hawksworth raced to get ready, before finally telling home-plate umpire CB Bucknor to call for a rare mid-inning hook of the Dodger reliever.

Though I’ve always suspected Broxton’s been off physically since his serious struggles began in late June, this was possibly the first time I watched him and said to myself, “There’s a guy that’s headed straight for the disabled list.” Of course, what I observe from my seat far from the pitcher’s mound has no real relevance, but I just offer it as an impression. …

On the next day, Broxton was shut down to have an MRI, and he never pitched again for the Dodgers in 2011. Even after he went to the disabled list, the diagnosis (or at least the seriousness) of his condition seemed to keep shifting, punctuated by a rehab process that ended up being scrapped at the end of June. Not until September, more than four months after his last major-league game and 15 months after the series against the Yankees that seemed the source for all his problems, was Broxton finally scheduled for surgery.

His final numbers for 2011: 12 2/3 innings, eight earned runs, 24 baserunners, 10 strikeouts, 5.68 ERA, four inherited runners (all stranded).

Coming attractions: Broxton’s Dodger career ended with the news today that he had signed with Kansas City, pending a physical. Reports are that he will earn a $4 million base salary plus incentives.

Broxton leaves Los Angeles as its all-time leader in strikeouts per nine innings with 11.6 (minimum 300 innings), fifth in adjusted ERA at 132 and seventh in saves with 84.

Much virtual ink has been spilled on Broxton’s pros and cons, and it’s been months since I’ve felt the need to add anything new to the debate, a debate I am happy to put behind me. So with that in mind, I will close with something I wrote back in April:

There is one thing I will insist on, however. For nearly five seasons – an eternity for most relievers, longer than, for example, the elite tenures of Eric Gagne or Takashi Saito as Dodgers – Jonathan Broxton was a great, great relief pitcher. The NLCS losses were crushing – indeed, for many they were poisonous – but he’s hardly the first great hurler who has pitches he’d like to get back. He has truly been one of the best relief pitchers in Los Angeles Dodger history, whether his best days are over or not.

Happy birthday, Vin and Ross


Kirby Lee/Image of Sport/US PresswireVin Scully and Ross Porter

Once more, it’s 2-for-1 day: Happy birthday to two of the best.

Remembering 2011: James Loney


Gary A. Vasquez/US PresswireJames Loney (42)

The setup: Patience was wearing thin for the 2002 No. 1 draft pick after his offense declined for the fourth consecutive season at age 27. He actually took an .803 OPS into the 2010 All-Star break, but floundered to .616 thereafter. Adding to the disconcerting power drought was a walk/strikeout ratio that declined from 1.03 in 2009 to 0.55.

The closeup: What a strange year.

As early as April 9 came a short post with the headline, “The lowest moment of James Loney’s career?” after he was told to bunt with a runner on second base and none out in the 11th inning of a game against a right-handed pitcher. While we would come to learn that extraneous sacrificing was perhaps the biggest foible of Don Mattingly’s rookie season as manager, things actually sunk lower for Loney before they got better. With a .194 on-base percentage and .213 slugging on April 25, Loney caused us to begin ruminating about the future of the worst-hitting regular in major-league baseball.

… The problem is not that Loney will hit this poorly forever – he won’t. The problem is that it seems less and less unlikely that, after three consecutive seasons of decline from 2008-10, he’ll take the step forward that the Dodgers have been counting on him to take.

If Loney can’t offer better than the league-average hitting that has defined his past three years – and now he has even further to go to reach that goal – there’s little chance the Dodgers can continue using him as their starting first baseman, whatever you think of him as a defensive player or RBI man. They will part ways with him after the season, if not sooner.

It pains me to say it because I’ve always liked Loney. As I said earlier this month, my theory is that the bid to coax more homeruns out of Loney has had the opposite effect, messing him up to the point where not only is he not hitting home runs, he’s not hitting doubles either. Loney, who had 41 doubles in 161 games last year, has just one in 24 games this year, to go with his sole home run three weeks ago. …

With a .534 OPS by mid-May, he was still on his way to one of the worst starts in post-1988 Dodger history, though by this time the rebound had begun, and the countdown to his being non-tendered was put on hold. In a reversal of 2010, Loney’s offense shot up in this year’s second half to a .914 OPS that, unadjusted for park effects, was 14th in the National League. A popular theory was that new hitting coach Dave Hansen helped; though the timing might have been mostly a coincidence, Loney’s mechanics had changed by the season’s latter months.

The sum total of it all was another substandard season for a first baseman. Finishing 2011 with a .339 on-base percentage and .416 slugging percentage, Loney was 19th offensively among MLB first basemen with at least 502 plate appearances according to Fangraphs, though his defense bumped him up a few slots. Though he hit seven home runs in his final 40 starts, he ended 2011 with only 12, failing again to reach his career high of 15, set in 96 games in 2007.

Coming attractions: With the Dodgers’ elimination from the Prince Fielder-Albert Pujols festivities etched in everything but stone, Loney is set to get at least one more shot at first base before becoming a free agent at the end of 2012.  No one would dare guarantee greatness from him at this point; the safe bet, after four straight years with OPSes in the .700s, is more of the same.

Nevertheless, I don’t find it outlandish to suggest that the form he displayed after his season-opening slump in 2011 could continue throughout 2012. In fact, his OPS from April 26 to the end of this past season was .828 – get him to the starting gate quicker in 2012, and he’ll have what for him will be a career year. That the Dodgers need even more than a career year from him is a larger issue.

The bitter kiss of a near-miss

Tonight, the football regular season ended for my biggest rooting interest, non-Dodger division: Stanford. Like the last time I pulled thus hard for a legitimate national title contender, the 2009 Dodgers, it began as a superb experience that ultimately turned frustrating, with a dose of thanks-for-the-memories perspective required to make sure I didn’t lose the forest for the Trees.

The first half of the season was incredible. Stanford would make mistakes here and there that would leave you briefly questioning its adequacy, and then you’d look up and the Cardinal would be up by 40. You’d remember that you don’t need to be perfect every play to be, essentially, perfect.

Then some injuries came, and some weaknesses were exposed, and Stanford spent the past month looking beatable, losing one critical game out of 12 when it could afford to lose none. Andrew Luck, the pole position 2011 Heisman Trophy candidate when the race began, suffered from having mediocre wide receivers but also was good for at least one really headscratchingly disastrous throw a game. Brent Musberger, who called several Cardinal games this season, would quickly minimize the interceptions to resume raising the roof of praise on Luck to Derek Jeter- like levels that — taking nothing away from Luck’s present and future greatness — made me a little uncomfortable.

Stanford won’t win the national title, and Luck might not win the Heisman. In the case of the former, it would have been fun and preferable to the BCS to see the Cardinal in a playoff, especially with some healed players, but the team would have been an underdog by the time it reached a semifinal (unlike a year ago, when Stanford was truly playing as well as any team in the nation at season’s end). I don’t feel cheated. As for Luck, he’s great and still a worthy contender, but if he doesn’t win the Heisman, I think I’d still feel worse that Toby Gerhart didn’t win two years ago. Neither statistically nor subjectively does Luck strike me as an automatic.

Expectations are mean, and I’m better to be rid of them. Much more than the Dodgers, success has been rare for Stanford football in my lifetime (and at this level unprecedented), and the journey of this team from 1-11 five years ago, through the big victories over USC, to the nearly dominant team of today had been an exquisite joyride. 

But right now, the disappointment with Stanford’s close call this season still lingers, to the extent that it’s easier for me to think right now about those ’09 Dodgers and their season turned on an ill-fated Jonathan Broxton pitch than the ’11 Cardinal. And though I don’t think Stanford will return immediately to its losing ways, the Dodgers should smell a title before the Cardinal does again.

Without a doubt, I feel good about having had near-miss teams to root for, but it’s no substitute for feeling great. 

Brutal but beautiful

Here’s a picture of recovering Dodger Stadium beating victim Bryan Stow with his family at Thanksgiving. It’s an absolutely wonderful sight that, at least if you see the picture as I do, also doesn’t allow you to escape the harrowing road they have been sent down this long year. Given the reality, however, it’s thrilling.

Turkeys away

Thanksgiving seems to have come at the right time for Dodger fans, who have new things to be grateful for amid the ongoing reminder that you can’t have it all.

A magnificent season by Clayton Kershaw brought home a major postseason award, a similar one by Matt Kemp did not. The two and their somewhat forgotten teammates provided memories we’ll still be talking about years from now, but of course not the ultimate memory of a World Series title.

On the first day of the month came the announcement of the sale of the franchise — the slow-cooking turkey in the oven that will be our feast when it is served, though we can only anticipate this morning how smoothly the cooking will go and how it will ultimately taste.

I had visions of a pretty major soul-bearing post today, but I have mixed feelings about it. We’ll just say that for a long time now, I’ve been trying to cook a better turkey and instead have kept burning it. Sunday night, I decided to take a break from such culinary efforts and instead focus on other, smaller things that I can more easily accomplish, such as working extended metaphors beyond their capacity for effectiveness. 

I’ve been afraid to look away from the big picture, afraid to take my eyes off the road. All that long-distance driving to nowhere made me bitter, really bitter. I still have real fears about what’s going to happen if I don’t get to where I think I need to be, but the fear hasn’t helped. I thought it was driving me toward my goals, but instead, in the words of the Boss, it was just driving me down.

So I’m lowering the bar. It’s shortsighted, but that’s the point. 

I won’t lie to you — there’s a hope that if I do some little things right, big dreams will come true. But no promises. Right now, it will have to be enough to get some little things in the bank.

Some might say the bar has been too low for the Dodgers for quite some time now, but I’d say their past 23 years mirrors what I’ve been feeling inwardly. The goals are there; the execution has been lacking and the angst at times overwhelming. I honestly don’t know when all will be right in the Dodger world, but I do know that I’ve never wanted to be pissed off that it isn’t. 

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone, and all my best, wherever you are. And just one more thing: The other day, as God as my witness, my 7-year-old asked me if turkeys can fly.

Remembering 2011: Mike MacDougal


Joe Murphy/Getty ImagesMike MacDougal (41)

The setup: After a 4.31 ERA with 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings in 2009, MacDougal all but pitched himself out of the majors in 2010 by allowing 15 runs in 18 2/3 innings for St. Louis. When the Dodgers signed him to a minor-league contract at the end of January, I set up his challenge thusly: “Since 2007, MacDougal has allowed more than 16 baserunners per nine innings in the majors. In trying to make the major league bullpen for the Dodgers, MacDougal will have competition from such righties as Jonathan Broxton, Kenley Jansen, Vicente Padilla, Matt Guerrier, Ronald Belisario, Blake Hawksworth and Ramon Troncoso.”

The closeup: MacDougal not only ended up pitching more innings for the Dodgers than all but one of those names, he finished the year with the lowest ERA on the entire staff: 2.05. Now, if you were paying attention, you’ll know that latter figure is tainted: He allowed 17 of 51 inherited runners to score. It was actually much worse before the All-Star break, when he allowed 13 of 33 inherited runners to come home – nearly 40 percent. His second-half numbers (4 of 18) were respectable. He struck out 6.5 batters per nine innings but allowed 13.1 baserunners. So, he was effective, but then again he wasn’t, but considering his $500,000 salary, then again he was.

MacDougal got his only save of the year in the Russ Mitchell game. After the Dodgers took a 6-3 lead in the top of the 10th inning against the White Sox, Matt Guerrier allowed two leadoff singles. Two outs later, MacDougal entered the game with the tying run at the plate, threw three pitches and retired Paul Konerko on a grounder to second.

Coming attractions: Inherited runners or not, this was a rebound season for MacDougal, one that should modestly increase offseason interest in the free agent. From the Dodgers’ standpoint, it’s again a numbers game. Javy Guerra, Jansen, Guerrier,  Hawksworth and Josh Lindblom are righties who should nail down spots on the roster, leaving at most one opening. But of course, things always get wacky in the bullpen. No doubt Ned Colletti would be interested in retaining MacDougal for depth, but price could be an object.

Remembering 2011: Russ Mitchell


Tony Medina/Getty ImagesRuss Mitchell (40)

The setup: With a .363 on-base percentage and .535 slugging percentage at Albuquerque in 2010, Mitchell was promoted in September to the Dodgers, for whom he put up this unusual line: 43 plate appearances, 37 outs (including a sacrifice fly), no walks, four singles, two home runs. In fact, his first two major-league hits were homers.

The closeup: Mitchell started 2011 with the Isotopes but came to Los Angeles much more quickly, receiving an April 29 callup when Casey Blake went on the disabled list. Mitchell ended up with two separate one-month stints with the team, each except for walks mirroring what came before. In 58 plate appearances, he made 43 outs with seven walks, five singles, a double and two home runs. His career numbers now total a .208 on-base percentage and .290 slugging percentage with four home runs in 101 plate appearances.

His most dramatic game by far came May 20: Against Sergio Santos, who had a 0.00 ERA in 20 2/3 innings for the White Sox, Mitchell (batting .067) hit a two-out, ninth-inning, game-tying homer that opened the door for the Dodgers to win in extra innings.

When he wasn’t with the Dodgers, Mitchell had a .372 on-base percentage and .503 slugging percentage in 392 plate appearances with Albuquerque. In general, his on-base skills showed improvement in 2011.

Mitchell’s season ended with wrist surgery on September 27, to address torn cartilage he had been playing with since May. Expected recovery time, according to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com, was up to eight weeks; currently we are at the 7 1/2-week mark. He signed up to play winter ball, with Tiburones de La Guaira in Venezuela, but he has not shown up in the stats yet as having appeared in a game.

Coming attractions: Right now, the Dodgers have seven infielders on their roster and figure to keep six. Mitchell and Justin Sellers would probably be the backups if the season started today, but you can expect increased competition by the time March arrives. There has been talk that Mitchell, who will turn 27 in February, would work on catching to increase his value as an all-purpose backup, but his wrist problem has at a minimum slowed those plans.  He has options remaining with the Dodgers, so if he does not hold down a roster spot, he’ll return to the Isotopes.

Spending here but not there

Ramona Shelburne of ESPNLosAngeles hits on the conundrum of why it’s okay for the Dodgers to spend big on Matt Kemp but not Prince Fielder and has a theory: that Frank McCourt is using Matt Kemp’s lucrative eight-year contract as cover to keep the Dodger payroll low while selling the team.

It all relates to that question we keep coming back to: Does committing big bucks to a major free agent enhance or reduce the value of a franchise?

… Where this really gets interesting is when you listen closely to Kemp, Colletti and Stewart.

Stewart said Friday that Kemp told him he wanted to get this deal done as soon as possible so the team could make a run at the top free agents on the market, most notably Kemp’s friend, Prince Fielder. Baseball’s winter meetings are Dec. 3-5 in Dallas.

He also explained the Kemp agreed to take less in the first year of the deal to give the team more flexibility this winter.

“The ballclub needed flexiblity, Ned was clear in explaining that,” Stewart said. “What was important really was the overall package for Matt.

“He’s an unselfish kid. It’s been his thought all along that he’d like to get somebody else there that they can put in the lineup that can help him, help the team win.”

That all sounds wonderful until you listen again to Colletti, who said Friday that he “didn’t know if it was going to be possible” to re-sign pitcher Hiroki Kuroda, and noted earlier in the week that the team wasn’t likely to pursue free agents of Fielder’s class and price range.

“Unless something changes, I think it looks less realistic,” Colletti said. “I think we have to figure out other ways to produce runs.”

There’s no way Stewart and Kemp could have missed Colletti’s previous comments or been unaware of the Dodgers financial issues as they go through this sale process. Remember, Colletti and Kemp are close now. They’ve repaired their relationship and talk often. Colletti and Stewart go back 30 years.

So you have to wonder whether something else is going on here.

Could Kemp and Stewart be ratcheting up the pressure on McCourt to give Colletti the chance to make a realistic run at Fielder? Or at least not be hamstrung with a budget smaller than last season’s? …

Read the whole piece here.

Wrapping up a big day with Newk and friends

“As the winner of the first Cy Young Award, I am so very proud of Clayton Kershaw and his outstanding performances that led to his receiving the 2011 Cy Young Award. I am reminded of Sandy Koufax whenever I see Clayton pitch and feel that there is a deep comparison between the two. Clayton has an outstanding work ethic, as did Sandy, which will show itself through Clayton’s baseball career.”

Don Newcombe

  • Cliff Corcoran of SI.com has a well-done piece looking at Clayton Kershaw’s workload and how it could mean he’s in for an early decline – or, conversely, that he’s on a Hall of Fame path. Corcoran concludes by recommending the Dodgers not dally in signing Kershaw to a big contract extension.
  • ESPN.com looks at the adjustments Kershaw made to become a Cy Young winner.

* * *

In case you missed it amid the Cy Young news, baseball has engineered a major realignment. The Houston Astros are moving to the American League West, there will be interleague play throughout the season, and biggest of all, there will be two wild-card teams in each league, who will face off in a one-game playoff. Jayson Stark of ESPN.com examines the changes from all angles, while DodgerTalk co-host Joe Block reacts to the realignment news and potential increase in interleague games by discussing whether NL teams should keep a designated-hitter type on their roster.

* * *

No, Matt Kemp, we haven’t forgotten about you:

  • David Golebiewski of Baseball Analytics has a deep examination of how Kemp is able to maintain a high batting average on balls in play.
  • For a change of pace, here’s Grant Brisbee at Baseball Nation with a history of … Matt Kemp trade rumors!

Remembering 2011: Trent Oeltjen


Brad Mangin/MLB Photos via Getty ImagesTrent Oeltjen (38)

The setup: Oeltjen made his Dodger debut in September 2010, starting out 4 for 11 before ending up 5 for 23 with a double, triple and four walks (.705 OPS). He was re-signed in December to a minor-league contract and batted .421 in Spring Training, but he began the season, as most expected, in Triple-A.

The closeup: Before his June 9 promotion to Los Angeles, Oeltjen batted .339 in 56 games for Albuquerque, which is interesting because of another fellow who batted .339 in 55 games for Albuquerque until his promotion: Eugenio Velez. And while Oeltjen did not sink to the lows of Velez in a Dodger uniform this year, he didn’t exactly have a whole lot of success, especially in the second half.

On June 27, Oeltjen had a career game with a walk, two singles, a triple and a home run in five plate appearances. When he singled as a pinch-hitter two days later, the 28-year-old had a .481 on-base percentage and .667 slugging percentage in 28 plate appearances as an ’11 Dodger.

But from July 1 on, Oeltjen went 6 for 50 with one extra-base hit (a home run at Colorado) and eight walks for a .250 on-base percentage and .180 slugging in 63 plate appearances. In other words, during Velez’s hitless tenure with the Dodgers that began July 4, Oeltjen had only five more hits. So while Velez was basically wasting one roster spot for July and August, Oeltjen was arguably wasting another.

Of course, thanks to what came before, Oeltjen’s final 2011 numbers – 322 on-base percentage, .324 slugging – look wonderful compared to Velez’s.

Coming attractions: Oeltjen remains on the 40-man roster for now, and will compete to stick as a backup outfielder in 2012. He is an incumbent, after all. But with a career .299 OBP and .384 slugging in 194 plate appearances, he’ll be looking over his shoulder.

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