Dodger Thoughts

Jon Weisman's outlet for dealing psychologically with the Los Angeles Dodgers, baseball and life

Category: Uncategorized (Page 32 of 63)

A new hope: Kemp joins Kershaw as light savior


Gary A. Vasquez/US PresswireMatt Kemp has been the most valuable offensive player in the NL in 2011, according to Fangraphs.

They are the two shining lights of the Los Angeles Dodgers, two high beams coming down the highway in blinding glory, belying the sputtering engine behind them.

Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw are the redemptive forces in a sinful year for the Dodgers. With respect to the speedy pleasures of Dee Gordon, the early season build of Andre Ethier’s hitting streak or the fleeting moments of glory for the other boys in white and blue (Hey, remember that time Jerry Sands doubled in his first at-bat? That was awesome), Kemp and Kershaw have been the sustaining forces for the masses.

With Kershaw, we expected no less. Ascending with blinding speed, the lefty has scarcely had his destiny challenged since he made his minor-league debut at age 18, outside some concern about his control that was easily pegged to his youth. Precocious in talent and work ethic, thoroughly grounded and determined, Kershaw just keeps blossoming, with 117 strikeouts and only 114 baserunners allowed in 107 1/3 innings this season. His ERA is at 3.01, with 12 of the 36 runs he has allowed in 2011 coming in twin pairs of sixth and seventh innings on in Cincinnati and Colorado — two blips preventing his ERA from settling in the low 2s.

Gary A. Vasquez/US PresswireClayton Kershaw leads the major leagues in strikeouts per nine innings.

Every start, Kershaw brings no-hit stuff, and twice in the past month he has nearly brought it home, before settling for two-hit shutouts. Always poised on the mound, Kershaw is the rare beacon of confidence in a Dodger world teeming with doubt.

Rare except for Kemp, who stands in contrast as someone whose raison d’etre has repeatedly been second-guessed. No matter what he did on the field for most of 2010, the question dogged him: ballplayer or imposter?

Kemp picked up the Bison nickname way back in his first week as a Dodger, though perhaps Baby Bison might have been more appropriate.  His obvious speed and strength immediately inspired people who nicknamed him, but anyone could also have anticipated that there would be growing pains on the prairie.

And yet, just as easy as the hurdles were to predict, so was the impatience. Let’s put this in perspective: Kemp made his major-league debut in 2006. For four seasons, his improvement was measurable. Even his 2010 season launched like a rocket with seven home runs in his first 14 games.

Whatever the reasons things went wrong for Kemp, 25 years old at the time, the widespread disgust with his performance from so many quarters outran even the Bison. Some of us look at struggling athletes and say, “This is what people go through, and the ones who are meant to conquer it will.” Others just say, “This shouldn’t happen – period.”

No one wants to rehash the whys and wherefores of last season — that’d would deck the halls with all the fun and good times of an unanesthetized root canal. The question was whether Kemp would or could do anything about it, a question that I wrote last fall was anything but simple:

… Everyone is expecting Kemp to be humble about a career that, until a few months ago, he has had every reason to take pride in. That might require more than an overnight adjustment. It might require trying harder, and then thinking you’ve got it, and then realizing you don’t, and then having to search – sincerely search – for new levels within yourself that aren’t immediately apparent.

Kemp, who has averaged more than 20 homers a year with a .285 batting average, who has had Gold Glove and Silver Slugger honors, two playoff appearances, a past income of more than $5 million and a guaranteed 2011 income of nearly $7 million, who came back and improved after disappointing finishes to his 2006 and 2008 seasons, is being told that’s not enough, not nearly. He’s being told that if he doesn’t improve in 2011, he will be a great disappointment, and if there’s any question about his effort, it will be nothing less than shameful. …

If Kemp were to say to himself – and I personally don’t think for a moment he is saying this to himself – “I have money, I have love, I have a good job and I have my health, and I have this all just by being who I already am, and even though I’m no longer the best, that’s all I need,” no one would think for a moment that this was a legitimate perspective, even though outside the world of competitive sports, it most certainly is. In sports, there’s no greater sin than unrealized potential. And yet in life, in real life, letting some of your potential go at a certain point can actually be a gift to yourself and your loved ones. …

As much as I wanted Kemp to rebound, I would have understood on a hits-close-to-home level if he hadn’t. But we needn’t have wondered.

Smaller guys like Jamey Carroll and Aaron Miles are typically called grinders, but Matt Kemp is nothing if not grinding. You can see it in the way he runs, the way he hits, even the way he holds himself back when he needs to. His spikes pulverize the dirt like engine pistons, his turbine power could light up 200,000 homes.

What’s better than a guy who makes you drop everything you’re doing to see what he’ll do next — and who constantly rewards you for the attention? That is Matt Kemp. His nearly homer-a-day performance on the Dodgers’ early June roadtrip was like a layer of Thompson’s Water Seal preventing any viewers from leaking away during his at-bats. The man came up to pinch-hit with a bad hamstring in the ninth inning and the Dodgers trailing 6-0 in Colorado — and you had to watch. And he delivered. His 20 homers and 21 steals in only 76 games — just extraordinary.

The respect and fear he has generated has only added to his momentum — intentional walks in the first inning, getting pitched around even if he’s the tying or winning run. To his credit, Kemp has made the most of this, reining in his swing when appropriate. I don’t suppose people buy tickets just to see maturity on display, but Kemp has put on a nightly revue.

It almost defies belief that the Dodgers might have their worst ballclub in two decades — yet could legitimately end up with the National League Most Valuable Player and Cy Young Awards. In some ways similar, in some ways so different, Kershaw and Kemp have kept the lights on at Dodger Stadium, guiding us through the fog.

Praise to Harley

  • Jonathan Broxton will eventually get the chance to be a closer again, reports Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com, but will not take on that role initially. I still say the longer the Dodgers can avoid assigning any one person to that role, the better. Broxton threw in the 94-97 mph range in his first rehab outing Tuesday.
  • Jerry Crasnick pays more than lip service to the notion of expanding rosters to 26 players – he provides all-points opus with pro and con arguments on the subject at ESPN.com.
  • I enjoyed this piece on former Dodger pitcher Guillermo Mota by Grant Brisbee of McCovey Chronicles.
  • He’s just there, not being especially terrible. That doesn’t have a ton of value — it’s called replacement level because the idea is that you can find an equally capable pitcher by trolling the waiver wire — but after 81 games as a Giant, I realized that I’ve never thanked Mota for not being Wayne Franklin, Waldis Joaquin, Merkin Valdez, or Osiris Matos. He’s not Vinnie Chulk, Erick Threets, or Randy Messenger. He’s not Billy Sadler, nor Brandon Medders. He’s not even Al Levine.

    He’s just Guillermo Mota. Which is to say, just a reliever. He comes in a yellow box with “RELIEVER” written in black lettering on the front. He’s not bad. He’s not good. He just is. By definition, that doesn’t have a lot of value — but he could be a punchline, an anecdote, a pitcher you tell your kids about so they’ll go to sleep quicker. I’m glad he’s not.

  • Kenny Shulsen of Lasorda’s Lair posted video of Dodger prospect James Baldwin III.

‘Moneyball’ – the trailer

It’s still only a glimpse, but there’s some good stuff in there. I think we’ll have to think of this as sort of a “Major League” story, in that the fact that Oakland doesn’t win the World Series is besides the point.


Previously by me: “Will ‘Moneyball’ movie be worth it?”

Relivin’ 2005: Blind dates

First in what might be a series of features recalling the last time the Dodgers lost more than 90 games …

Record after 69 games in 2005: 33-36
Record after 69 games in 2011: 31-38
2005 finish: 71-91
2011 pace: 73-89

Dodger Thoughts, June 15, 2005: “Blind Dates”

You know what this is?

000 100 000 – 1
100 020 00x – 3

Or this?

101 000 000 – 2
200 010 00x – 3

This is not liking a girl on first glance, discovering as you go that she has substance and some nice qualities – and then realizing, after it’s too late, that you’re too shallow for her anyway.

Happy 85th birthday, Newk

Yet another thing about Matt Kemp: He hits righties

Andre Ethier and James Loney are among the left-handed batters who have become notorious for their struggles against same-side pitching. Matt Kemp, though, has rarely been terrible against righties, and right now they’ve stopped being any kind of problem, to say the least.

OPS vs. lefties/OPS vs. righties
2006: .578/.808
2007: 1.002/.835
2008: .989/.725
2009: 1.045/.782
2010: .809/.743
2011: 1.111/1.032 (213 plate appearances against RHP this year)
Career: .943/.792

According to the Society for American Baseball Research (via the Dodger press notes), June 12 is the earliest date a Dodger has ever reached the 20-homer mark.

* * *

In case you missed it earlier, Molly Knight of ESPN the Magazine reported that a deferred payment owed to Manny Ramirez of more than $8 million comes due at the end of the month. We’ll see what happens with the McCourt saga between now and then.

Feeling you, Big Man

Hoping for a recovery for Clarence Clemons

A tale of two signings: Jamey Carroll and Juan Uribe

How does this happen? Is the lesson to bet on on-base percentage once players hit their 30s? Or is this just an anomaly?

Jamey Carroll

Signing date: December 18, 2009
Contract terms: Two years, $3.85 million ($1 million signing bonus, $1.05 million in 2010, $1.8 million in 2011), plus incentives for plate appearances
Age when signed: 35 years, eight months
Performance over previous two years: 206 games, 656 plate appearances, .355 on-base percentage, .343 slugging percentage, adjusted OPS of 89 (100 being average)
Performance as a Dodger: 195 games, 656 plate appearances, .374 on-base percentage, .348 slugging percentage, adjusted OPS of 103

Juan Uribe

Signing date: November 30, 2010
Contract terms: Three years, $21 million ($5 million in 2011, $8 million in 2012, $7 million in 2013, plus $1 million in 2014)
Age when signed: 31 years, four months
Performance over previous two years: 270 games, 1,007 plate appearances, .318 on-base percentage, .464 slugging percentage, adjusted OPS of 106
Performance as a Dodger: 46 games, 177 plate appearances, .282 on-base percentage, .319 slugging percentage, adjusted OPS of 70

Contract information source: Cot’s Baseball Contracts

Oh, and just for kicks … Matt Kemp, Triple Crown candidate

NL Batting Average
.336 Joey Votto, CIN
.335 Andre Ethier, LAD
.335 Jose Reyes, NYM
.331 Lance Berkman, STL
.329 Matt Kemp, LAD

NL Home Runs
18 Matt Kemp, LAD
17 Prince Fielder, MIL
17 Jay Bruce, CIN
15 Lance Berkman, STL
14 Albert Pujols, STL

NL Runs Batted In
55 Prince Fielder, MIL
53 Matt Kemp, LAD
48 Ryan Howard, PHI
47 Jay Bruce, CIN
45 Lance Berkman, STL

The odds are slim – he’s at his hottest and still only leading in one category. But still, pretty impressive.

* * *

  • The saga of Vin Scully’s star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame continues. As Tom Hoffarth of the Daily News reports, Southern California native Glenn Mingay is leading an effort to raise $2,500 needed to restore Scully’s star to proper condition at Save Vin Scully’s Star.
  • John Sickels of Minor League Ball reviewed the Dodger draft. Summary: “You can see the money limits here, but this isn’t a total disaster. Reed, Maynard, and O’Sullivan are all interesting, and there’s a mixture of solid college performers and high-upside, high-risk bets as well. It could have been a lot worse. But it wasn’t good, and the development staff has a lot of work to do with these raw guys.”
  • Hong-Chih Kuo and Kenley Jansen had encouraging rehab assignment debuts, writes Ken Gurnick of MLB.com, but the forecast looks much more grim for Vicente Padilla and Jon Garland. “Padilla has a bulging disk in his neck, a recurrence of a condition that limited him to one start in six weeks last year,” reports Gurnick. “Garland has what has been described as shoulder inflammation, but sounds a lot more like a labrum or rotator cuff tear.”
  • Bill Plaschke of the Times talked to Kuo after his appearance and writes admiringly of the pitcher’s efforts, but says he still seems unsettled.
  • Juan Castro and Jay Gibbons have cleared waivers and been outrighted to Albuquerque, but they have the right to refuse the assignments and become free agents (or retire, which some have speculated Castro will do). This makes moot the confusion over why the Dodgers designated Gibbons for assignment three days before optioning Jerry Sands, but the fact remains that the Dodgers no longer believe in Gibbons. “Gibby wasn’t giving us enough to basically have a guy that’s pretty much one-dimensional,” Don Mattingly told Dylan Hernandez of the Times. “He’s not going to steal a bag for you. You have to defend for him.”
  • Dee Gordon’s speed is the real deal, but the little guy is still going to need to improve his ability to hit line drives to succeed, argues Bill Petti of Beyond the Box Score.
  • Tough realities: The Times is killing my favorite blog of theirs, historical chronicle Daily Mirror, because of low readership (criminally low readership, I’d say). That site was a pure treasure trove, with the latest treat being a series of reprints of Jim Murray columns in this, the 50th anniversary of his Times debut. Larry Harnisch and Keith Thursby put huge amounts of time and energy into the Daily Mirror, and I just want to thank them.

Keeping your enemies closer …

At the end of games of May 28, the fourth-place Dodgers had a slim one-game lead in the loss column over last-place San Diego in the National League West. Los Angeles was precariously close to falling in the cellar.

Then, over their next 10 games, whether the Dodgers won or lost, the Padres did the same in nine of them:

May 29: Dodgers and Padres win
May 30: Dodgers and Padres win
May 31: Dodgers and Padres win
June 1: Dodgers and Padres lose
June 2: Dodgers off, Padres lose
June 3: Dodgers lose, Padres win
June 4: Dodgers and Padres win
June 5: Dodgers and Padres win
June 6: Dodgers and Padres lose
June 7: Dodgers and Padres win
June 8: Dodgers and Padres lose

And so today, the fourth-place Dodgers have a slim one-game lead in the loss column over last-place San Diego in the National League West.

* * *

Mid-game Rubby/Dee update

I won’t have a wrap-up of tonight’s game until late tonight, but let’s just say that at the halfway point, it’s been anything but dull. Dee Gordon is 3 for 3 with a steal, while Rubby De La Rosa walked five in his first two innings and still was outpitching Roy Oswalt (thanks in part to some great Dodger defense). Dodgers 4, Phillies 1 in the fifth inning.

Should Dee Gordon’s nickname be ‘Roadrunner’ or ‘Mneep Mneep’?

Let’s try the latter. MLB.com has video of how fast Dee “Mneep Mneep” Gordon went from first to third in his debut Monday.

Draft day dope

The MLB draft begins today at 4 p.m. Three things we can be confident of with the Dodgers, who will have the 16th pick in the first round:

1) However unlikely it was that the Dodgers would spend more than $5 million to sign last year’s No. 1 pick, Zach Lee – and sure enough, they did it – multiply that by a factor of oodles this year.

2) However apparent the Dodgers’ needs are on the position player side, they’ll choose the best player available, which could very likely be a pitcher.

3) However much we make of the first pick, lower-round guys can definitely make a difference. It’s a wait-and-see proposition all around.

A sampling of Dodger draft picks of the past 10 years, with the round they were drafted in (via Baseball-Reference.com):

1 – James Loney (2002)
1 – Chad Billingsley (2003)
1 – Scott Elbert (2004)
1 – Blake DeWitt (2004)
1 – Luke Hochevar (2005)
1 – Clayton Kershaw (2006)
1 – Zach Lee (2010)

2 – Jonathan Broxton (2002)
2 – Ivan De Jesus, Jr. (2005)
2 – Josh Lindblom (2008)
2 – Garrett Gould (2009)

4 – Delwyn Young (2002)
4 – Xavier Paul (2003)
4 – Javy Guerra (2004)
4 – Josh Bell (2005)
4 – Dee Gordon (2008)

5 – Jon Meloan (2005)

6 – Edwin Jackson (2001)
6 – Matt Kemp (2003)
6 – Brent Leach (2005)

10 – Cory Wade (2004)
10 – Trayvon Robinson (2005)

11 – James McDonald (2002)
11 – Nathan Eovaldi (2008)

15 – Eric Stults (2002)
15 – Russ Mitchell (2003)

17 – Russell Martin (2002)

18 – A.J. Ellis (2003)
18 – Allen Webster (2008)

19 – David Price (2004)

24 – Andy LaRoche (2003)

25 – Jerry Sands (2008)

30 – Shawn Tolleson (2010)

On-day links

Linky-dinky doo …

  • Though everyone knows the Dodgers need to add bats to their farm system, this year’s draft might not offer many immediate solutions: “For us, there isn’t a hitter at 16 that we can insert into left field or the lineup,” Dodger assistant general manager Logan White told Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. “This draft is thin at catcher and thin up the middle infield, two areas I’d like to put in the organization.”
  • San Francisco general manager Brian Sabean says the Giants will “have a long memory” about the way Scott Cousins took at Buster Posey at home plate last month, saying that “if I never hear from Cousins again or he never plays another game in the big leagues, I think we’ll all be happy,” according to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News. But Larry Granillo of Baseball Prospectus suggests Sabean has a short memory about similar incidents at home caused by members of his own team.

    Meanwhile, who remembers the details of a collision at San Francisco in 2009 between Eugenio Velez and Russell Martin? I was at the game:

    … And so we went scoreless into the bottom of the fifth inning, when the first of six Dodger relievers, James McDonald, surrendered a double off the glove of Andre Ethier and then a run-scoring single. Coming around to score, Eugenio Velez undressed Dodger catcher Russell Martin like he was a line drive at Charlie Brown. It took Martin a couple of minutes to get himself together. The next batter, Pablo Sandoval, handed Martin his catcher’s mask, and I thought, “Oh, what a nice guy.”

    That didn’t last long. McDonald’s next pitch was a bit inside and from our sideways vantage point appeared to hit Sandoval. Nonetheless, it wasn’t much of a brushback and it certainly didn’t seem intentional, given how tight the game was. But Sandoval immediately reacted angrily, walking out toward the mound, and suddenly a donnybrook was dawning. I couldn’t believe it. That being said, almost everyone else in the ballpark seemed to be itching for a Giants-Dodgers fight, including Martin, and it took some time to restore order. The fans around me actually thought Martin and McDonald should have been ejected, as if they started it – though to my mind they were wearing orange-colored sunglasses. …

    Joe Torre plans to have a talk with Sabean.

  • Jim McLennan of AZ Snakepit offers this look at the state of the National League West.
  • The World Baseball Classic is expanding to 28 teams for its 2013 edition, with 16 of them playing in a fall 2012 qualifying round.
  • In a guest piece for Baseball Prospectus, Sam Miller of the Orange County Register takes a long look at myths and realities with Mike Scioscia.
  • Ernest Reyes of Blue Heaven posts a collection of 1981 Vero Beach Dodgers cards. R.J. Reynolds!
  • Vin Scully’s Hollywood star has been liberated, reports Tom Hoffarth of the Daily News.

Update: Granillo found the Velez-Martin play: That’s the first time I’ve seen the replay. Velez slid, which makes it more harmless than I remembered. Martin was definitely vulnerable, and I think Velez could have avoided upending him, but it wasn’t something to get in an uproar about.

Off-day links

The next edition of Dodger Cogs and Dogs will be June 16. In the meantime …

  • MLB’s Dodger hall monitor, Tom Schieffer, was interviewed by Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com.

    … “I don’t think there is any question there is a strain between the franchise and the community right now,” Schieffer said. “And that isn’t the community’s fault.” …

    “Have you been approached by anyone in support of Frank?” I asked.

    Schieffer laughed, then gave me the answer I fully expected.

    “I’m not going to go there,” he said. …

  • Steve Henson of Yahoo! Sports has a wonderful personal remembrance of Sparky Anderson.
  • The saga of Vin Scully’s covered-up star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame, first uncovered (the story, not the star) by Roberto Baly of Vin Scully Is My Homeboy, has only gotten crazier, writes Tom Hoffarth of the Daily News.
  • Chris Jaffe of the Hardball Times writes about the 50th anniversary of what he calls “baseball’s most surreal bottom of the ninth,” and (insert Vin Scully’s voice here) it had to be the Giants and the Dodgers.
  • Brandon Lennox of True Blue L.A. has capsules on seemingly every 2011 MLB draft-eligible player who is related to a past or present Dodger. You’ll love looking at the names.

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