Dodger Thoughts

Jon Weisman's outlet for dealing psychologically with the Los Angeles Dodgers, baseball and life

Tag: 2014 season preview

March 30 pregame: How does the NL West race look?

LOS ANGELES DODGERS VS  LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM

Dodgers at Padres, 5:05 p.m.
Carl Crawford, LF
Yasiel Puig, RF
Hanley Ramirez, SS
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Andre Ethier, CF
Juan Uribe, 3B
A.J. Ellis, C
Dee Gordon, 2B
Hyun-Jin Ryu, P

By Jon Weisman

Believe it or not, the other teams in baseball do intend to play regular-season games this year. I know — who knew? Weather permitting, by bedtime Monday, there will be no 0-0 teams left in the National League West.

The contemplative Andre Ethier and the Dodgers are the divisional favorite, but who’s the pick for top challenger? San Francisco is the consensus selection of the six national publications below.

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The sky’s the limit as 2014 begins

Los Angeles Dodgers workout at the Sydney Cricket Ground in Australia

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks, 1 a.m.
Kershaw CLXXXIII: Kershawstralia
Yasiel Puig, RF
Justin Turner, 2B
Hanley Ramirez, SS
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Scott Van Slyke, LF
Juan Uribe, 3B
Andre Ethier, CF
A.J. Ellis, C
Clayton Kershaw, P

Notes: The Dodgers optioned Tim Federowicz to the minor leagues, keeping Drew Butera on their 25-man roster. Non-roster invitees Joc Pederson, Zach Lee and Miguel Rojas were also left off the Opening Day roster.

By Jon Weisman

I really can’t recall a time the Dodgers faced such high expectations.

They have been division favorites, but I can’t remember them being division favorites the way the Showtime Lakers were.

As far as a World Series title goes, expectations are tempered, but hardly crushed. Washington and St. Louis are among the top threats from the NL, though the list doesn’t seem to run much deeper. As guarded as people might be on the Dodgers’ World Series chances, few if any teams draw more enthusiasm.

This latest bit from Baseball Prospectus is striking, but not the least bit surprising given what we’ve seen this offseason. A total of 39 contributors to the site predicted who would win the National League West, and 38 picked the Dodgers. Twice as many picked the Dodgers to go all the way as any other team.

And yet, at the same time …

I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve seen people question the Dodgers’ bench, their dilemma at second base, the perils of their outfield – too much talent one day, too little the next – the ability of Juan Uribe to maintain his 2013 performance, and so on. Look around the comment sections of national sites, and it’ll take you about three seconds to find someone snickering about the Dodgers’ Opening Day lineup relative to the team payroll.

It’s easy to find potential weaknesses among the strengths in the Dodgers. It’s only after you step back and compare them to the strengths and weaknesses of the other 29 teams that you realize, yeah, maybe the high expectations are justified.

The Dodgers won’t have one outfielder play 162 games, but they could easily get quality outfield play for 162 games, times three.

They don’t figure to have an All-Star at second base, but one position won’t sink a team. And the chance to play matchups there could yield surprising results.

Then there’s the pitching. Knock on wood, the pitching really could be great and squash a lot of trouble elsewhere. The best pitcher in baseball at the front of the rotation, strong veterans behind him, competition at the back of the rotation and identifiable reinforcements from Chad Billingsley to Zach Lee materializing as the season progresses. You’ll find a similar story in the bullpen from Kenley Jansen down to Jose Dominguez.

In Major League Baseball, the very best teams typically lose at least 60 games. They’ll trail in, what, 100 or more? That’s a lot of time to grit your teeth and pull your hair out. As I wrote in the first Dodger Insider post in January

There are no straight lines between January and October, no steady-as-she-goes escalators. It’s a zig-zag journey, the longest of heavyweight fights where the best you can hope is you’re still standing after absorbing every imaginable face and body blow. You try to win every moment, knowing that you can’t possibly win every moment. And you try to smell the roses, win or lose. (It’s a game, after all, however much it means to us.)

At the start of the season, you just want as much hope as possible. And with the 2014 Los Angeles Dodgers, you’ve got as much hope as you’ve had in some time.

I suppose one could look at that as the greatest potential for disappointment as you’ve had in some time, but you’ve spent the past 25 seasons getting used to that. You’re prepared. So instead, amid all the inevitable ups and downs, enjoy the possibility of greatness.

Baseball Prospectus playoff odds favor Dodgers

BP

By Jon Weisman

The Dodgers have the best odds of any team in baseball to win the World Series, according to the 2014 preseason Playoff Odds Report from Baseball Prospectus.

The analytical site gives Los Angeles a 83.6 percent chance of reaching the National League Division Series and 17.9 percent chance of winning the World Series. The latter figure is more than twice as high as any other NL team, with Detroit coming in as the American League favorite at 10.7 percent.

Baseball Prospectus’ simulation has the Dodgers winning 93 games. In the NL West, next behind the Dodgers are the San Francisco Giants, with 85 wins.

Read more about the Playoff Odds Report here.

Post-Arizona status report for the Dodgers

Colorado Rockies v Los Angeles Dodgers

By Jon Weisman

There’s definitely a weird feeling to this Spring Training interregnum between Arizona and Australia — not that it won’t feel even weirder next week, when the Dodgers follow their two regular season games Down Under with four off days and then a pair of Freeway Series exhibitions against the Angels.

Nevertheless, with no game action until the Dodgers scrimmage against Team Australia on Thursday, and the Dodgers having set their 30-man travel squad for Sydney, this does seem like an appropriate time to take a little bit of stock.

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The ‘What if’ gang

Los Angeles Dodgers at Texas Rangers

By Jon Weisman

The last time I had this level of anticipation in March for a Dodger season was in Manny Ramirez’s brief but shining heyday with the team, and perhaps not even then.

There are the fears, as I briefly alluded to Friday with Hanley Ramirez, that potential could go poof in a moment’s broken bone or ligament tear. But it’s not every year that the sky’s the limit with a team. And with this team, it kind of is.

The possibility of a great pitching performance every night. A lineup that, while not quite Murderer’s Row, has strength after strength.

With question marks even so.

And so when I follow these Spring Training games, games that in and of themselves don’t mean anything, I see them through the prism of what might happen in the regular season. It doesn’t matter that the Dodgers blew a lead in one game Saturday or missed rallying in another. It just makes me play “What if?” over and over again.

Take Joc Pederson, who bridged both split-squad games today. The prospect struck out in all three at-bats in the lidlifter, then absolutely torched two balls in the nightcap: a drive over the fence in center field, 410 feet away, that looked like a home run to my eyes but was called a double, then another shot that was a no-doubt tater. In case we needed the reminder, when Pederson’s number is called sometime this year, whatever the month, it could be heartbreak or heroics.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Texas RangersJustin Turner went 2 for 2 with a walk … and an error. Paul Maholm was effective; Josh Beckett, not so much. Seth Rosin had another three innings without allowing an earned run, and still we don’t know how exactly there will be a roster spot for him.

Dee Gordon has taken us down this road for a few years now. As much as he might struggle to get on base, the electricity he generates when he does is too much to ignore. Perhaps the truly compelling aspect to Gordon in 2014 is that rather than be demoralized by having his native shortstop position closed off to him, he seems galvanized. Second base seems to suit him, marking a potential new beginning rather than an end.

Certainly, uncertainty remains. Gordon has had better springs than this as precursors to disappointing regular seasons. In the 2012 Cactus League, he had a .446 on-base percentage and .485 slugging, and throughout his exhibition career with the Dodgers, he has stolen 26 bases in 30 attempts. Reality has its way of insinuating itself in unpleasant ways.

But isn’t this why we come back to baseball each year? To say, “What if this year is different? What if this year is the one?”  Isn’t this why Dodger fans keep burning the candle, 26 years removed from 1988?

Remember this: Every team has weaknesses and anxieties. The best you can have at this time of year is fewer of them than the next team. After that, it’s just seeing where the ride takes you.

The Dodgers fell to 4-5-3 in Spring Training (so close to the improbable 4-4-4). And still, this team fills me with anticipation. What if? What if?

Fourteen points about the ’14 Dodger schedule

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS VS LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Jon SooHoo/©Los Angeles Dodgers, LLC 2013

By Jon Weisman

As you know by now, the Dodgers don’t exactly have a conventional opening to the regular season, with two regular-season games in Australia, followed by three exhibitions against the Angels before the campaign proper resumes March 30 at San Diego. The home opener is April 4 against the Giants.

Schedule intrigue continues throughout the season. Here are 14 things to remember about the 2014 slate.

  1. The Dodgers have never opened their regular season overseas. Their last comparable trip, to China, was for a pair of exhibition games March 14-15, 2008. Subsequently, Los Angeles began its season with a 5-0 shutout of the Giants on March 31, then went 13-13 in April and 46-49 before the All-Star Break before kicking it into gear to reach the National League Championship Series.
  2. Detroit comes to Dodger Stadium on April 8-9, marking the earliest visit ever to Dodger Stadium by an American League team.
  3. Six of the Dodgers’ first 13 games are against the Giants; eight of their first 19 (in three separate series) are against the Diamondbacks.
  4. Except for the Angels, all Dodger interleague games this year are against American League Central teams: home against the Tigers, White Sox (June 2-4) and Indians (June 30-July 2), away against the Twins (April 29-May 1), Royals (June 23-25) and Tigers again (July 8-9).
  5. The longest homestands of the year are a pair of 10-gamers: April 18-27 against the Diamondbacks, Phillies and Rockies, and May 26-June 4 against the Reds, Pirates and White Sox.
  6. In their first 50 games of 2014, only five are against winning teams from 2013: the two against Detroit and three at Washington (May 5-7).
  7. After opening their domestic season at San Diego, the Dodgers don’t play the Padres again until June 20 and don’t have a home game with their neighbors to the south until July 10.
  8. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS VS LOS ANGELES DODGERS

    Jon SooHoo/©Los Angeles Dodgers, LLC 2013

  9. The long goodbye: in 31 days of July, the Dodgers have nine home games. The Dodgers close the first half of the season with a four-game mini-homestand July 10-13 against the Padres, then don’t play another home game for 16 days, until July 29, after following the All-Star Break with trips to St. Louis, Pittsburgh and San Francisco.
  10. Worried about playing three games in St. Louis in July immediately after the All-Star Break? The last time the Dodgers opened the second half in St. Louis, they were swept in four games from July 15-18, 2010. Last year, of course, the Dodgers were red-hot in July and went 6-0 on their post-All Star road trip in Washington and Toronto.
  11. From July 29 through August 17, the Dodgers play 20 straight days, their longest scheduled stretch without a day off in 2014.
  12. The regular-season version of the Freeway Series comes relatively late in 2014: two games at Dodger Stadium on August 4-5, followed by two games in Anaheim the next two days.
  13. Arizona is the first National League West foe the Dodgers finish playing — the final game between the two teams is September 7.
  14. The Dodgers have only one road trip in September, but its their biggest of the season: 10 games in 10 days against the Giants, Rockies and Cubs.
  15. If there’s a pennant race down the stretch, Dodger Stadium fans will get to see a lot of it. Los Angeles ends its regular season with 15 September home games, culminating with a September 28 finale against Colorado.

Update: ESPN announced today that its Sunday Night Baseball schedule would include the Dodgers on April 6 against the Giants and July 20 at St. Louis, in addition to the previously announced March 30 game at San Diego.

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